The $HUI gold miners index shows lots of potential upside, once it can get back over it’s 200 week moving average in the 257 area. A move just back to the 2020 highs would be 51% from Thursday’s close, and seems highly likely to me. From there, if miners and metals can continue making new highs, we should expect to see the highs on the monthly chart taken out. The down trend line on the monthly chart, no matter how its drawn (bars to bars, or wicks to wicks), illustrates how important this current area is, with a move above 260 or so on both charts having big implications for the upside potential and probabilities. Testing the monthly chart high made back in 2011 would be 158% gain from yesterday’s close of trading, and that is just the bigger miners, the mid-caps and juniors should double those returns or more.

Ratio charts by definition cannot go forever in one direction or the other. With that in mind, take a peek at the PPO and MACD on the longer term chart of SILJ:SLV, after testing the horizontal support going back when SILJ was first introduced, we observe both indicators about to cross and turn higher. It’s not too late, the miner have lots of catching up to do!

On top of the already substantial gains the gold and silver miners have made, we see action like today with leaders such as Royal Gold, symbol RGLD. The first chart is just seven months of data, to easily show the magnitude of today’s move. The second chart goes back to early 2022, so we can see what happened the last time RGLD acted similar, noted by the blue arrow. It was the start of a 33% move over just 6-8 weeks. Buckle up!

The down trend in this ratio was broken convincingly earlier this month, suggesting it was time for the silver mining stocks to outperform silver, which has occurred. Today, it’s good to see a strong bar higher, boosting the ratio over its 200 day moving average, after dancing around on either side of it the last several days. It’s still early in the move, and once the ratio can turn, all its moving averages to trending higher, the silver mid-cap producers and juniors will really fly.

The precious metals miners group in general is performing quite well, with stocks like EXK, FSM, NGD, JAGGF, and AYASF all making new recovery highs, with many others very close to doing so, such as GATO and SVM as they hang up near their recent new highs. Today we also saw GDX make a new recovery high, with GDXJ, SILJ, and SIL all in hot pursuit. Even recent laggers AG, PAAS, HL, and MAG are in the game again, MAG is up just under 10%, while AG is back over its 200 day MA, with PAAS and HL looking to do the same, as they sit just under their respective 200 day MAs. All in all, the move looks great, more so because its hardly getting any press, its still as if nobody cares! These have a long way to run, in my opinion.

Just a quick chart that shows silver nearing oversold stochastics, along with possible support levels as defined by a horizontal trend line, and fibonacci retracements, suggesting the metal could be nearing a turn higher again. It already touched the horizontal trend line, and the classic 50% fib retracement is not far below around $24. I would certainly take a close look at which miners to add to, if we get a weak opening on Monday. Some of my miners are holding up extremely well, including JAGGF, NGD, SVM, CDE, GATO, AYASF, EQX and FSM just to name a few.

There are many similar charts across the precious metals mining group, today I just picked two that seem notable, but most of them exhibit similar developments. First, SVM appear to have broken its long downtrend, the next step is to start a sustainable uptrend, which I am confident it will.

Then we haver FSM, going back even longer we see the general support area where it seems to always get a good bounce, and more interesting, about every four years its not just a bounce, but a 400-600% run to the highs in short order. Furthermore, this last trip lower towards the trendline, FSM wasn’t able to make it all the way down there, suggesting the path of least resistance is higher. I am looking for this miner to take out it 200 week MA (the red line above current price, which would be a nice gain in itself), for a sign that the stock is again headed up to test its all time highs. That would put another 500% or so gain on the board, and the gains happen very, very quickly, one has to be in them BEFORE the move starts, because they become quite difficult to buy once moving, and especially in big size, since they can have 10% drops overnight here and there along the way to making those stellar gains. I will add to both of these miners, and many more, into good sized pull backs that bring them down to their 10 WEEK MA’s, or near their 50 DAY MA’s, or 200 DAY MA’s, all over which are good enough areas to add.

Michael Oliver is the best technical analyst I am aware of, and this interview just came out today. Well worth watching!

While I realize trend lines are subjective, as the person drawing them determines the contact points. In other words, does one just use the absolute high or low of the wick, and do they allow for a trend line to have been penetrated, as long as it came back into range and continued to stay in the range? For this reason charting and trend lines can’t be exact, however they can be used to get the general areas and trend directions correct, so are of great use overall. Regardless of how you draw the lines on the chart of SLV, it’s clearly in an uptrend since the 2020 lows, and it’s making a solid attempt to move higher with that solid white bar for this month (March) which is more impressive being the month is only half over. Then the PPO has just put in a positive bar, and like the GDX chart I posted yesterday, this move up is contrary to the down sloping stochastics, always a sign of overwhelming strength as it’s shaking off the tendency to go in the direction it “should” be going. Something bigger is happening, even it it’s not yet apparent in the news, and both SLV and GDX want to go higher over the next couple months at least. I added to some of my miners, keeping in mind they usually bite me before they work out, so didn’t buy heavily. Still, I added to BTG with it’s 6.2% dividend, some HL, SVM, and even started positions in a few developers and explorers like WRLGF, AAGFF, and AGXPF. My plan remains the same, and I will not be going overboard on the juniors at this stage in the new bull, but later on I might shift profits on my mid-caps into the more risky juniors. I also plan to add to EQX, ORLA, JAGGF, maybe also AG and HL again, if a pullback materializes.

The fact GDX is thus far putting in a solid monthly bar higher, and over all the moving averages, while in the face of down trending stochastics, is a very positive sign. I think the bottom is in on the precious metals miners, and those that don’t own them yet will not get many opportunities to buy them comfortably. If GDX gets over the $32 area, it could easily test the all time highs near $60, even blow through that level.

While people were dancing on the graves of miners, including many long time metals bulls just recently, many miners have raced higher with new all time highs in gold, and silver closing in on the $25 level again. Some quick charts…

Miners look great to me, and while they are extended in the very near term and could correct lower at any time, it should be used as a buying opportunity. Keep in mind most silver miners are actually 50-75% gold producers, or derive much of their revenues from other metals like copper or zinc, so higher gold prices will go right to the bottom line. Even better, many trading days lately it is miners that are the strongest group, while most others are down on the day. This run has only begun, but expect sharp, scary pullbacks along the way, as the bull ties to shake you off!