Miners were weak enough that I was stopped out of 5 miners, and decided to trim a portion of my SILJ holdings. Members can check daily account screenshots for specifics on total holdings remaining, average cost, etc. I was stopped out of the following today….DV.V, PGM.TO, AAG.V, ISVLF, and AMXEF (though AMXEF was not actually a stop out, just close enough to the stop price and small enough position to jettison it). I also trimmed some SILJ, but still maintain heavy exposure at the moment.

When I stop out of positions like this, it does not mean I’m negative on the group or anything in my analysis has changed, its simply that the stock has dropped to a level where I no longer want to hold it to wait and discover what is “wrong”. My suspicion is that none of this is related to the miners specifically, they are down without company specific news to justify it in each case. That doesn’t mean we don’t sell, but it does mean we might even buy them back at some point. I typically like to give them some time before hopping back in, however, of the 30 positions or so that I manage, these 5 have proven to be weak enough that they came down to their stop-out levels.

It was a tough week, with SILJ down over 8%! I’m going to leave you with the WEEKLY chart of SILJ, then get away from the computer to keep my sanity! LOL I will have more observations to share this weekend, after I have a chance to digest how the markets are transitioning. It’s possible I might need to make some substantial portfolio changes, for example if the new “delta variant” of Covid is used as an excuse to shut down the world economy again, or shutter mines. For now, I won’t act on fear or emotion, instead will wait for this stretched extreme short term to normalize, then assess how things are shaping up. Losing is part of the game, we must do it gracefully so it doesn’t get out of control, let your stops do their job!

While SILJ stochastics are oversold on the weekly chart, one could argue its heading down to test its 200 week MA (moving average). I trimmed about 15-20% of my SILJ holdings today, members can log in to see the exact figures, but I remain bullish. I will look to put the proceeds to work again, perhaps at lower prices, or in my best performing miners, maybe in entirely different groups. I need to see if I can figure out what is driving this perceived turn in markets, is it more covid fears and economic slowdown that comes with it, or maybe just a correction in commodity and value stocks? We will know more before Monday, and I’m prepared to make any necessary changes, as long as they are necessary and not driven by fear or emotion!

With miners getting hit again today, I am getting fills on some orders to buy I left in below the market prices of the last few days. I added to my GDXJ Jan 2023 expiry LEAP calls (added to loser), and also brought up my MUX holding (added to winner) to a full position now. I am also very close to stopping out of a few positions, will update if it occurs. In the uranium area, I added to my winner in UROY, as I look to bring it up to a full position. Here is the daily chart of GDXJ, sure looks ugly, but they always look their worst before they change for the better, just like its always darkest just before dawn. This has been a relentless pullback, lets see if I can survive it, even make money from it!

Members get specifics like stop levels I’m using, average prices paid and total position sizes for all holdings, as well as unrealized gains and losses with their subscription.

While I am not stopping out of PSLV etf (Sprott Physical Silver etf), I keep an eye on the ratio between the miners and the physical metals for times like this where one outperforms the other drastically. It can be a good time to make the switch to a different, but related investment. From the chart below you can see that physical silver has been doing much better than it’s miners for awhile now. I will take the bet that this ratio is overdone and soon we will see the relationship reverse like usual. In this case I’ve decided to liquidate my PSLV holdings and will use the proceeds to get more invested in silver and gold miners over the next few days. The first stage, the sale is complete, now I just need to get the money back to work while miners are trading at low prices. The list of prospects has been mentioned here many times already, like I have already added some more MUX (McEwen MIning) today, and though not a silver miner, I added copper royalty company NOVRF (Nova Royalty Corp) on this decline today. I might even put the proceeds into an etf like GDXJ or SILJ, if individual names don’t offer up a buy opportunity or start to move higher without me. I also have had a bid in all day for more WLBMF shares (Wallbridge Mining), and Canadian junior gold explorer. Here is the ratio chart of SILJ:PSLV, note it is “oversold” on the daily stochastics, but know the weekly chart stochastics are as well.

I am also close to stopping out of a couple junior miners, and will keep members posted if I sell. I will continue to add in the pullback to MUX until I get a full position, it’s almost there. I’m still looking to add to every name I have been buying recently, it just depends on which one is offering up the best opportunity each day. Members can see the loss I took on PSLV today, as well as my revised stop levels, and new total position sizes in the tabs above.

Please note I’m using the weekly charts in the charts below, because that is the time frame with the most attractive signal at the moment, the most oversold technicals. With regard to GDXJ, I already own some LEAP call options not expiring until Jan 2023, so I will likely focus there for my additional purchases. As usual, I will bid for them and be patient since there is no rush and miners have not yet proven they can hold their strength each day of late. If I get filled on the GDXJ LEAPS it will be adding to a losing position, so requires I keep an eye on it, since with more size but the same total risk I’m allowing, it means I give each LEAP less room on the downside before stopping out. In any case, I still have example room being I am not near full position in this idea yet. Weekly chart below…

Another stock I’m interested in buying on the pullback is Altius Minerals (ATUSF), another commodity play and Rick Rule’s favorite stock as of a month or two ago. I saw one of his interviews on youtube, and he was very positive on the fundamentals, visit the company site to better understand what they do at altiusminerals.com

Again, we see the stock is oversold on the weekly charts, and also made new 52 week highs not too long ago, typically a good setup in my trading. I’m not buying at the market, but sitting on a bid below the current price, hoping for a drift lower to fill me. Patience pays, either I get filled at a great price, or I don’t, and I just scope out the next opportunity that is always around the corner!

These are in addition to the names mentioned in prior posts over the last week or two, like MUX, KWEB, DSVSF, URNM, etc. Members can see all changes, buys and sells, and adjusted stop prices, along with unrealized profit and loss and total position sizes in the tabs above.

So far, all I have done today is nibble on some more shares of MUX, adding to the pile and now right up near a “full position”, as defined by my total risk on the position. Should the stock go higher, I can always add easily as long as I keep my total risk fixed. Some recent leaders in the mining group are looking as if they want to stop dropping and maybe turn higher. A chart of interest to me and representative of my observation, is a stock like Hecla Mining (HL). While I no longer own this one outright, it is a large holding in the SILJ etf, which I am heavily invested in. Take a peek at the chart,and notice the stochastics, MACD, etc all oversold and turning higher on this daily chart, but its happening on the weekly chart as well, for those that need even more confirmation.

Another one I mentioned yesterday was DSVSF (Discovery Silver) as one I wanted to add to my holdings, but today we see a classic “false breakdown” below the 200 day MA on the daily chart. If this strength can hold or build on itself, DSVSF is another that looks as if its decided to turn and go higher for awhile. I already have a full position on this stock, but long time readers will know I often go over the amount of shares I originally planned based on my total risk, as long as I keep my total risk fixed I can get bigger positions because I also have unrealized gains as part of the cushion. This allows me to get much more aggressive in winning positions, meaning positions in which I have unrealized gains. Nice chart, take a look.

Unfortunately, I was a little to stingy with my bid prices yesterday, so didn’t get any extra shares in KWEB (up 4% as I type), or NOVRF (jumping another 9.5% so far). While I already have decent sized positions, on the items I wanted to add to, I will now have to make a decision whether to add into strength or not. I will decide before the close, can always add later in the week, as well. Let’s see what sets up, or if we get a mid-day pullback to let me buy more shares. It might just end up being one of those great days for a trader, where he can sit back and watch his accounts grow without doing too much, since all the work was done ahead of time! Members should check the other tabs above to find current stop levels when they have been adjusted, and position sizes, unrealized gains and losses, etc.

I added some extra shares to my MUX position today on this little pullback, I expect to get some extra NOVRF shares before the close as well, but won’t post their charts again since I’ve shown them enough in the last week. I’m currently slightly in the red with NOVRF, so it I get some fills this afternoon, it would be “adding to a loser NOVRF“. 🙂

Some traders will never add to a losing position. I understand the rationale, but have found some of my best positions occurred when I built them over time and at lower prices as I was buying into a pullback and getting better prices. However, this does not mean I don’t respect total risk, I still try to maintain my overall risk in a position close to my starting risk levels. So in this post I have added to both a winning trade and a losing trade (trying on the latter, though no fills yet).

Discovery Silver (DSVSF) is a silver exploration company that has treated me well so far, even after the recent slide lower, I still have unrealized gains in the 30% area. Members can verify the specifics by viewing the daily snapshot of my managed account, which shows in detail everything one needs to know in order to follow my trading decisions and their results. I haven’t mentioned DSVSF lately because it was climbing higher for a long while, and outside the areas I would consider adding. After the pullback, its now coming into a zone where I will consider adding, though still just “on the bid”, meaning I am not in any rush and just bidding for stock, waiting for it to come to me. Let’s see the chart…

So I am sitting below the current bid by a little bit, waiting for possible mid-day market gyrations to pull it down and fill my orders. If I don’t get more shares today, the same strategy applies over the next few days while I have DSVSF in focus. On the other hand, if it just starts higher now without giving me extra shares, I’m already well invested in this one so can live with that option too! Before I get too many emails asking, the stock sitting just below the 200 day MA does not bug me in the least. In fact, I’ve come to learn that more often than not, support and resistance areas will hold, rarely are they just lines in the sand. With the stock sitting below the 200 MA, my bet is a few weeks in the future, its probably well above the moving average again. It’s just an observation, and it wouldn’t change my bet even if the stock were still below the line, as everything in a trade like this now is based on my TR (total risk), not patterns, cycles or anything else. The market has already shown DSVSF to be a good one, its enough to know with proper risk control.

MUX is a similar situation in that I am sitting on gains, but not as much as DSVSF. In any case, I’m bidding for more MUX as well. Members check snapshots of daily accounts to see what moves were made, and how it affects the numbers, stops, etc on the account. Please remember that I rarely fall in love with a stock, that can get costly. If I repeatedly mention a company several days in a row, its only to let readers know I am still adding, it in no way implies I like the stock more than others mentioned, or any others in my portfolios. Its simple time for action in that name, and I’m stalking the trade.

I haven’t made any changes yet today, but put in “stink bids” (low-ball bids) on both NOVRF and the KWEB etf. I will post the daily NOVRF chart below, but in each case we now have a good, strong reversal day. Today its NOVRF up over 16%, and Friday it was KWEB tacking on over 4%, so these two seem like they are trying to turn the corner, which means I want to get up to a full position as soon as possible as long as at favorable prices. Long time readers know I hate chasing a stock by paying, but in NOVRF’s case, you can see its the first good day in a long while, so I’m definitely not paying up on it!

The KWEB etf is pulling back today a couple percent, after having strong Friday. There is lots in the news about the Chinese government cracking down on internet giants over there, but it’s hard to put price on news, so we will let the charts remind us what to do. I’ve posted enough KWEB charts and nothing much has changed, just the price. Let’s see if they can push it a little lower and give us some great fills at low prices. As always, members should check revised stop levels, position sizes (most important), and unrealized gains and losses on the tabs above. I post DAILY screen shots of the typical account I manage for friends and family, a trader should find this very useful and informative, and it can not just make them a lot of money, it can save them from some grave errors like cutting winners too soon.

Members of the site already know I added to MUX again this morning, please check the Stops and Daily Account Statement tabs for details and how new trades affect overall numbers, stops, etc. Since almost all my holdings are taking a nice jump higher today, but have been in a weak trend lower overall, I have decided not to chase and add or buy many new positions as yet.

A quick review shows UROY up near 10% today, MGMLF (Maple Gold) up 6%, and almost everything else is in the green as well. Its a welcome performance after a tough week, and right before the weekend. In a few minutes the new COT report will be out, showing us what moves have been made in the futures markets, I pay attention to the gold and silver figures, though I do not use this data as a timing tool for trades.

Its also good to see my recent KWEB buys getting some upside today as well, turns out overnight that China’s central bank eased monetary policy again. It’s almost comical, being just two weeks ago they were whining about inflation and claiming they will fight it at any cost (higher rates?). This is a great example of why we MUST ignore the news. It’s good to be aware of what is happening, but what they say is typically a better fade, that to take their words at face value! So KWEB is up 4.5% today and looking like it might want to make a substantial bounce. In any case, my signal is longer term (6-10 months on this etf), so I won’t be jumping up and down if my LEAPS gain another 50% in a few days, they are already gaining 16.4% as I type. I’m still looking to add to this position, but there is no rush, patience is a virtue. A couple charts to consider…

Is it time to bounce for SILJ and the silver miners?

Being a stock like AG (First Majestic, I own it individually, as well as in the SILJ etf) is the largest holding in the SILJ etf, with a chart like the one below where it’s now sitting on its 200 day MA, is what has me thinking its time for a bounce in the silver miners group. It will either break down soon, or resume its uptrend, we will find out soon!

It appears the precious metals miners will define their next path very soon. Either the bull is done, and they are heading lower for a long time to come, or one believes the bull is very much alive and just catching it’s breath for the next big move up. Buckle up, and get ready to find out!