I added some extra shares to my MUX position today on this little pullback, I expect to get some extra NOVRF shares before the close as well, but won’t post their charts again since I’ve shown them enough in the last week. I’m currently slightly in the red with NOVRF, so it I get some fills this afternoon, it would be “adding to a loser NOVRF“. 🙂

Some traders will never add to a losing position. I understand the rationale, but have found some of my best positions occurred when I built them over time and at lower prices as I was buying into a pullback and getting better prices. However, this does not mean I don’t respect total risk, I still try to maintain my overall risk in a position close to my starting risk levels. So in this post I have added to both a winning trade and a losing trade (trying on the latter, though no fills yet).

Discovery Silver (DSVSF) is a silver exploration company that has treated me well so far, even after the recent slide lower, I still have unrealized gains in the 30% area. Members can verify the specifics by viewing the daily snapshot of my managed account, which shows in detail everything one needs to know in order to follow my trading decisions and their results. I haven’t mentioned DSVSF lately because it was climbing higher for a long while, and outside the areas I would consider adding. After the pullback, its now coming into a zone where I will consider adding, though still just “on the bid”, meaning I am not in any rush and just bidding for stock, waiting for it to come to me. Let’s see the chart…

So I am sitting below the current bid by a little bit, waiting for possible mid-day market gyrations to pull it down and fill my orders. If I don’t get more shares today, the same strategy applies over the next few days while I have DSVSF in focus. On the other hand, if it just starts higher now without giving me extra shares, I’m already well invested in this one so can live with that option too! Before I get too many emails asking, the stock sitting just below the 200 day MA does not bug me in the least. In fact, I’ve come to learn that more often than not, support and resistance areas will hold, rarely are they just lines in the sand. With the stock sitting below the 200 MA, my bet is a few weeks in the future, its probably well above the moving average again. It’s just an observation, and it wouldn’t change my bet even if the stock were still below the line, as everything in a trade like this now is based on my TR (total risk), not patterns, cycles or anything else. The market has already shown DSVSF to be a good one, its enough to know with proper risk control.

MUX is a similar situation in that I am sitting on gains, but not as much as DSVSF. In any case, I’m bidding for more MUX as well. Members check snapshots of daily accounts to see what moves were made, and how it affects the numbers, stops, etc on the account. Please remember that I rarely fall in love with a stock, that can get costly. If I repeatedly mention a company several days in a row, its only to let readers know I am still adding, it in no way implies I like the stock more than others mentioned, or any others in my portfolios. Its simple time for action in that name, and I’m stalking the trade.

I haven’t made any changes yet today, but put in “stink bids” (low-ball bids) on both NOVRF and the KWEB etf. I will post the daily NOVRF chart below, but in each case we now have a good, strong reversal day. Today its NOVRF up over 16%, and Friday it was KWEB tacking on over 4%, so these two seem like they are trying to turn the corner, which means I want to get up to a full position as soon as possible as long as at favorable prices. Long time readers know I hate chasing a stock by paying, but in NOVRF’s case, you can see its the first good day in a long while, so I’m definitely not paying up on it!

The KWEB etf is pulling back today a couple percent, after having strong Friday. There is lots in the news about the Chinese government cracking down on internet giants over there, but it’s hard to put price on news, so we will let the charts remind us what to do. I’ve posted enough KWEB charts and nothing much has changed, just the price. Let’s see if they can push it a little lower and give us some great fills at low prices. As always, members should check revised stop levels, position sizes (most important), and unrealized gains and losses on the tabs above. I post DAILY screen shots of the typical account I manage for friends and family, a trader should find this very useful and informative, and it can not just make them a lot of money, it can save them from some grave errors like cutting winners too soon.

Members of the site already know I added to MUX again this morning, please check the Stops and Daily Account Statement tabs for details and how new trades affect overall numbers, stops, etc. Since almost all my holdings are taking a nice jump higher today, but have been in a weak trend lower overall, I have decided not to chase and add or buy many new positions as yet.

A quick review shows UROY up near 10% today, MGMLF (Maple Gold) up 6%, and almost everything else is in the green as well. Its a welcome performance after a tough week, and right before the weekend. In a few minutes the new COT report will be out, showing us what moves have been made in the futures markets, I pay attention to the gold and silver figures, though I do not use this data as a timing tool for trades.

Its also good to see my recent KWEB buys getting some upside today as well, turns out overnight that China’s central bank eased monetary policy again. It’s almost comical, being just two weeks ago they were whining about inflation and claiming they will fight it at any cost (higher rates?). This is a great example of why we MUST ignore the news. It’s good to be aware of what is happening, but what they say is typically a better fade, that to take their words at face value! So KWEB is up 4.5% today and looking like it might want to make a substantial bounce. In any case, my signal is longer term (6-10 months on this etf), so I won’t be jumping up and down if my LEAPS gain another 50% in a few days, they are already gaining 16.4% as I type. I’m still looking to add to this position, but there is no rush, patience is a virtue. A couple charts to consider…

Is it time to bounce for SILJ and the silver miners?

Being a stock like AG (First Majestic, I own it individually, as well as in the SILJ etf) is the largest holding in the SILJ etf, with a chart like the one below where it’s now sitting on its 200 day MA, is what has me thinking its time for a bounce in the silver miners group. It will either break down soon, or resume its uptrend, we will find out soon!

It appears the precious metals miners will define their next path very soon. Either the bull is done, and they are heading lower for a long time to come, or one believes the bull is very much alive and just catching it’s breath for the next big move up. Buckle up, and get ready to find out!

As MUX gets dragged lower with the miners, now down over 7% on the day, I am stepping in to add more. I posted the daily chart below, and yes, I am well aware an obvious support point is 200 day MA at roughly $1.16, where I will also look to make a larger buy, if it gets there. Other than that, I haven’t made many changes today, it’s been a day to wait and lick my wounds. It’s a bit surprising to see miners continue down day after day, considering the yield on the 10 yr note is getting hit pretty hard this week, down almost 10% so far. At times like this I have to maintain faith in my system, and wait for things to straighten out, return to making sense. In the meantime, I maintain my protective stops and continue to look for opportunities. Below I posted the $TNX also, the chart of the 10-yr note yield, and a bonus video of CEO Rob McEwen on the future of McEwen Mining.

Rob McEwen on youtube…

I haven’t made an changes to holdings today so far, but wanted to take the free time to show you some charts of interest, specifically in the copper and uranium sectors, since the continue to work lower today, bringing us closer to areas we might want to start accumulating.

First lets look at the URNM etf, its the most representative of the uranium stock group in my opinion, and we can see it continues to work lower. In fact, it’s now made new lows for the pullback. Its getting into a price range where I would like to start buying it just on price, but we need the technicals to confirm the idea, and offer up a buy signal before taking a stake. The chart…

I would like to pick some URNM shares up in the $55 area, but that is just a guess by looking at support areas. It might or might not get there, but I have learned in many years of trading, just be patient and wait for the setup. If it occurs, great, if not, there will always be another idea, as long as one remains patient! I will try and wait for $55, but that isnt the most important factor in my buy decision, I am more interested in getting a technical buy signal, such as oversold stochastics on the WEEKLY chart. My point is I could buy into URNM well before we get to the $55 level, even at a price above current levels, when the buy signal comes. We dont have the signal yet, but are closing in quickly, so be ready to press the BUY button before long.

Now, lets take a peek at the copper mining and exploration stocks. Specifically, I am going to post charts on copper junior stocks, since they seem to be pulling back the hardest. I am not yet sure on how much I will buy of the junior copper stocks, but several are in the buy range already, I am just waiting for this economically sensitive group to show strength vs the stock market. The S&P 500 and QQQ’s are just getting weak today for the first time in a long while, so I prefer to see more weakness there, that could bring down things like copper quite easily, this would be an ideal setup if it occurs. If not, I can double back and buy some of the bigger, heavily traded copper stocks which are also pulling back (just not as much as the juniors), like FCX, HBM, TRQ, etc. In any case, I think the group does well over time, along with the whole commodity complex. Some copper juniors I’m considering are posted below, but know ahead of time I’m not in love with any of these juniors, they are just another trade!

First is TGB, Taseko Mines…

Now lets look at Western Copper and Gold (WRN)…

Some smaller junior copper stocks, like Copperbank (CPPKF)…

Libero Copper (LBC.V)

How about GCXXF, Granite Creek Copper? It hasn’t corrected like the others, then again it has shown great strength through the pullback in the group. I will keep my eyes on this one as well, and look to pick it up on the bid (rather than pay up) when I decide to get involved.

There are many others to consider, and I will cover them in future posts or whenever I take a position. As always, the most important decision in our trading, assuming we have at least a mediocre signaling system, it the size of out positions. Members should keep abreast of position sizes and stops levels on each holding, which can be found in the tabs above (Stops, and Daily Account Statements). These numbers are the ones that work for me, but every individual has their own needs and goals, so should adjust accordingly.

As always, it’s best to check my current, actual holdings with average prices paid and unrealized gains or losses on ALL positions, under the Daily Account Statement tab. Also, as positions get added (or trimmed), its a good idea for members to check how the stop prices change with new transactions. Changes in stop prices are affected more by larger orders, so one has to know how much I bought or sold for it to all make sense. I will say it forever, position sizing is the most important aspect for a trader to learn, as its necessary for proper risk control.

So, I’m stepping up and adding to MUX in this continuing pullback. I will continue to add into the decline, until I get to my stop out level, where I require myself to focus on new ideas and dumping a losing trade. I have stink bids in at different levels below the current price, and hope to get filled on as many shares as the weaker hands want to give me. It’s nothing personal, but we must learn to buy low and sell high if we are to make (and keep) money from the markets.

I try not to let past successes or failures in a stock influence my trading decisions, and MUX is no different. I will share that in 2016 I was more heavily invested in MUX than I normally go in any one idea, but it was justified by the fact I was already in the green (up on the trade), so I was keeping my overall TR (total risk) fixed, barring some news disaster. I will get to that topic, new disasters in another post, but suffice to say one probably shouldn’t bet as heavily as I did on MUX back then, because a gap lower through my stop levels could still devastate my accounts. Long story in short form, the stock ran up around 400-500% and I was fortunate to capture most of it, using the same charts and indicators I use here. I won’t let that fortunate turn of events influence my trading decisions now, but it requires a conscious effort to remind myself that 2016 has little to do with today’s action in MUX. This time I’m posting the weekly chart for MUX. Nothing about the chart say one must buy the stock today, but notice the stochastics are getting oversold, and that we are getting a big red bar (lower prices) this week, so if the markets closed the week right here, MUX would be well oversold in the new charts printed next Monday. Notice the stock was rejected at the 200 WEEK moving average, and has now backed up to take another run at breaking through.

I’m ok adding here, as I’m still not quite up to a fully loaded position, and I already have decent unrealized gains. I love adding to my holdings from a position of strength, which is the case here. I add to losing positions too, at times, but its never as aggressive or happily as when I have already been proven correct on an idea.

With KWEB now down over 40% from its all time highs, I can’t see how owning the best and biggest technology companies in China will prove to be a mistake. Earlier I posted a daily chart as I was buying to add to my LEAP calls on KWEB, now I’m posting a weekly chart to show the longer term view. It looks to me like we should be coming into support in this area, but if not, my stops will limit the losses. It could take awhile to turn higher again, but since this signal is on a MONTHLY buy (along with the shorter time frames), I expect to be in this trade for 6-10 months, possibly a little longer.

Its odd the Chinese leaders have been hit with a full blown bear market, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just hit new all time highs today. This is not typical action, there might be something lurking under the surface that is bigger than I can imagine, but that’s the great thing about trading, its just taking the odds when they are in your favor. Limit our risk, and open our upside.

I made this post because I have placed “stink bids” to add to my LEAPS. That is where we pick a price away from the market that won’t likely get filled, but if it does, we got a great price (or a low price, I should say, since we don’t know if its great or not until the trade is closed!). Members should check my Stops tab, and Daily Account Statements to see changes in overall position sizes, adjusted stop levels, and how the positions are doing since I started accumulating. If I get any fills, the new additions and average prices paid will show up in those tabs. All changes are in the ACTUAL account statements, there should be nothing to hide from a person asking for your trust, that is why I put the statements out there for my subscribers to see the facts.

After a 20% spike in one day last week, UROY (Uranium Royalty Corp.) has been down several days in a row, take peek at the daily chart. I am still working into full position on this one, so welcome the pullback, but might have to adjust my “full position size” if the volatility stays elevated. This would force me to bring down the number of shares I intend to own, but for now I am keeping things as originally planned. I will update the stop levels and desired position size in the tabs above, for subscribers to the site. You can also see my total position sizes and unrealized gains and losses under the Daily Account Statements tab. I was up on UROY, now sitting on a slight loss, but still looking to get bigger position.

Long time readers know how important position sizing is, in fact its the most important aspect of any trading plan. This stock illustrates the point perfectly, had I been already too heavy in the trade, this pullback might shake me out (stop me out), rather than being viewed as an opportunity. Of course, as always its the size of my orders and positions that matter most, so keep up with me on the tabs mentioned above, they are critical to a trader and wile different for each individual, very similar in many ways no matter who makes the trade. The principles fo risk control apply to everybody!