While I normally prefer to add to winners on a pullback, I also like to add to a position I like but that I am down on, especially once it starts showing strength, as the mining sector is doing today. It is more risky than adding to a winning position that has already has a cushion to buffer any downside, but also can give great entry prices or lower our average cost from earlier purchases, assuming the trade is still a good one and will work out. As I type, I am still not up to a full risk position in GDXJ LEAPS but I’m getting close, might even get there before the close of trading today. Members can get all the details in the Stops and Daily Account Screenshots tabs above, but they also receive real-time trade alerts whenever I make a move in the markets, as well as adjustments to stops levels, unrealized P+L, etc.

The other day I posted the WEEKLY GDXJ chart, here I will post the daily chart. Warning: It sure looks ugly, the moving averages are in a death cross and headed lower, the stock price in at the lows, what else could be wrong?! LOL While I enjoy being in a firm uptrend, with momentum at my back, I have also learned that things often look their worst right before they turn great again. Recall my GDXJ buy the other day when I posted the WEEKLY chart, that told a different story, showing well oversold stochastics and the stock near potential support, and since this is a trade with a WEEKLY hold time expectation of 6-10 weeks, I can live with an ugly daily chart. Let’s see if we can hold this one through to see it transform into a winner. If it can, these are the biggest profit potential trades of all, riding something from the trash dump all the way to the pinnacle of every portfolio! 🙂 In any case, I will be taking profits when we get to overbought stochastics on the WEEKLY chart, whether I am up or down on the position. Members get updated stop prices, and overall position sizes and unrealized P+L numbers with their subscription, something I not only think is the most important aspect of trading, but little or no newsletter writers provide. I don’t understand this, as its the single most important aspect of successful trading, just picking a name to buy and sell in the most basic step, and not nearly as important as how much we buy, if and when we stop out, as well as when we sell for profits. GDXJ daily chart:

I’m not far from getting to a full-risk position, keep up with the position sizes and stops in the member’s section.

After the close update: I was filled on a buy order to add to my NOVRF position just before the close. I have to report this buy as an “adding to a losing position”, as I’m down slightly on this stock so far. Being that copper stocks are turning higher like many commodity stocks today, I don’t expect my Nova Royalty Corp to be a loser for long. For those that want immediate updates and alerts, becoming a member gives them not only real-time trade alerts, but also a real, daily screenshot of the account I am managing for this site (it’s a real account, real money, real time), including total position sizes, average prices paid for positions, buying power, margin amounts, etc. All of the most important details are available to subscribers, and I’m very sure the information is well worth the cost of membership. I don’t know of any service out there that lays the actual and true numbers all out there for their subscribers, instead all I have seen is a constant barrage of buy recommendations, with very little regard to the position sizing and stop placement. These are the most important aspects of a trader’s plan, and ultimately they determine our results, what we decide to buy and sell is secondary to risk control and learning to push winners for all they want to give. Money management and risk control are far more important than what we choose to trade, it’s that simple.

Miners look to have turned the corner and are headed higher today. I showed a chart of McEwen Mining recently, but today it looks even better as its nudging back above its 200 day MA. MUX is a live case where where my position size is larger than my original desired position based on my fixed Total Risk (TR). I will still keep the risk close to the original level, just have more shares which means I will give them less room to be wrong. Because MUX looks like it’s about to start higher again and getting over it’s critical 200 MA, I feel the momentum near term has changed in my favor, so I am comfortable with more shares. I will continue to play this one the same way, if I get more chances to add while still sitting on unrealized gains, I will do so. I might add to this post later, as I have open bids on the market for more UROY, NVROF, and GDXJ LEAPS to name a few. Members get real time email alerts whenever I make a move, buying or selling, as well as access to account screenshots daily.

I only focus on MUX today because that is one I got some fills on, but the whole sector is acting better and many charts look similar. This afternoon might be a good time to add to some positions, let’s see if they present an opportunity!

I’m still not up to a full risk position in GDXJ LEAPS, the ones I bought expire in Jan. 2023, and I am about half way to my desired position size. Of course, if the trade starts working out and showing me unrealized gains, I could get quite a bit “heavier” into the position, sometimes as much as double or triple my original planned size. However, I am always trying to keep the Total Risk (TR) near my original amount.

Members can get all the details in the tabs above, including revised protective stop levels, but here is the WEEKLY chart of GDXJ. Once again, we can see GDXJ iw well oversold on the technicals, but it also could be that it wants to come down and the red 200 week MA, in which case I would increase my position size to full risk with full size. Since this is a weekly signal, I expect to be in the trade a minimum of 6 weeks, maybe as much as 10 or 12 weeks depending on how well the trade is working.

Late afternoon update, added to my UROY (Uranium Royalty Corp). I used barcharts.com for the larger graphics on something like UROY which is less actively traded, in case readers wonder why I alternate between charting services. I’m still not up to a full position as defined by my Total Risk (TR) levels, but I keep buying until I get there, as long as I am not stopped out.

With the relentless beating the miners have taken since the FOMC meeting a few weeks ago, I have been stopped out of two more positions. I don’t like it, but we have trading rules for a reason, and more often than not I end up being happy I stopped out when the stock reached my limit. This morning, Irving Resources (IRVRF), and Lion One Metals (LOMLF) were jettisoned. I hate to see LOMLF sold, being on the weekly chart its coming down to its 200 day MA, but again, we must adhere to our discipline. The charts below are DAILY bar charts.

I also added to Nova Royalty Corp (NOVRF) as the copper sector is getting smashed again too, and since I like buying things on sale while I don’t yet have a full position, today is as good a time as any. I intend to keep adding to NOVRF and acquire a few other copper miners, as well as some uranium stocks since they are pulling back hard also. In fact, even the general stock market is starting to weaken, something I have been patiently waiting for, as I expect it to lend some strength to precious metals once we see a weak month or two in the S&P500 and Nasdaq. Stocks I’m looking for buy signals on over the next few days include URNM, CCJ, URPTF, DNN, NXE in uranium, and WRN, COPX etf, IVN.TO, TGB, ATUSF, and a few others. Looking out a few weeks, the TAN (Solar etf), and PBW (Wilderhill Clean energy etf) might be setting up for buy signals soon on the WEEKLY charts, and SPCE (Virgin Galactic) could be doing the same, after losing close to hlf it’s value in just the last month! I posted a chart of SPCE to show how quickly something can drop on a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation. Just after Richard Branson took his own service to visit space, SPCE stock started dropping like a stone, the opposite of what most investors would expect!

After a good start to the year, it’s been a tough stretch the last couple months. It’s part of the game, and at times like this we must remind ourselves that a solid game plan with the discipline to follow it, are what determines our overall success in trading and investing. Drawdowns are just another part of the process, it’s how we manage them that matters. Let our well-placed stops take us out when a stock gets there, it’s about risk control, not opinions or emotions at that point.

This weekend I wanted to go through some uranium miners I see coming into potential buy zones, with oversold technicals. I’m not buying these just yet, but I am getting my list ready to put into action. Regarding uranium miners, some like Rick Rule are very positive on the group. While he is well known for his expertise in resource markets, and remains a staunch bull on the precious metals, he makes it clear that a dart-throwing selection process has a far higher probability of success in the uranium miners (roughly 8 out of 20 are investable- about 40% of the group), than it does in the precious metals miners, where we are lucky if 10% of a much larger group are worth our time and investment. That is not to say that precious metals miners are not lucrative when we do out homework, but the uranium sector is much “easier”, and our odds much better, if we have timed our macro calls well. Let’s look at some charts, and keep in mind that the only uranium stock I own at the moment is UROY (Uranium Royalty Corp.). I did own CCJ (Cameco Corp), but cashed out with good profits a few months ago. Now that it’s correcting, I am waiting for a good window to get back into CCJ along with the following uranium stocks.

Notice that most of the charts to follow look similar in how they have made recent new highs, and now pulling back in a correction, just like the URNM etf. Each chart of a different stock will have it’s own areas where I might look to start a position. Some will be near their 200 day moving average, others might be nearing a 50% fibonacci retracement or some other important technical level, etc. The point is when it’s time to start getting involved in a sector, as defined by the leading etfs in the group nearing a buy signal, I start looking for points on each individual stock’s chart to pick my areas to start buying. Then, I continue to look for windows to add until I get up to a full position, as defined by my Total Risk (TR) level. I might buy all, or just one of the following, depending on what happens near term, on what the market offers me. Let’s look at some individual uranium stocks to see what buy signals might present soon.

I already cashed out with great gains on Cameco (CCJ) once in this bull market, but I intend to do it again. I will likely use the LEAP call options again, as they worked so well the first round. CCJ is the “easy” play, if anything in this business can be considered easy! Still, I will wait until the URNM etf is on BUY signal before taking a position. If I can only own a few uranium stocks, the URNM etf and CCJ will be among my holdings.

Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) has a similar chart to CCJ in that they have both made new 52 week highs recently, and are now retreating, but UEC is more volatile so pulling back harder. It’s not my favorite uranium stock as far as fundamentals, but any stock that has corrected close to 50% after making new highs, and in a leading group, will get my interest and energy to look into it further. UEC is on my list of potential buys.

Dennison Mines (DNN) is another uranium stock that looks to be experiencing a normal, expected correction in a bull market. The percentage moves offer lots of potential risk and reward, when one considers the 52 week high was $1.80 just a few months ago, and now the stock sits under a dollar. That is a 44% correction already, and equally important is the 200 day MA is only a little lower at 88 cents, from Friday’s closing price near $1.00. You will notice the MACD indicators are oversold on these charts too, usually along with the stochastics. With most of the stocks mentioned in this post, I will start by putting in lowball offers since we don’t have a full buy signal yet on URNM, hoping to get some lucky fills form a panicked trader on the wrong side, looking to exit at any cost. 🙂

Nexgen Energy (NXE) shows similar price action in the chart as the others I have to take a moment to say these are the best setups in my opinion, when stock after stock in a sector are sporting similar technicals and chart patterns. Here we see NXE is also possibly going to approach its 200 day MA. On any individual uranium stock, I might start acquiring shares at any moment now, as they are not only nearing supports, but also confirming the action in each other. Member have full access to my ACTUAL positions, sizes, stops, and unrealized gains and losses, just look into the tabs above.

UEX Corp is even closer to it’s support than the prior stocks mentioned. It has more potential risk, but also possibly more reward. The way to play a name like this is to adjust my position size based on the ATR (average true range). I like this one because it’s another stock in the group that has corrected 45% already, AND just made new 52 week highs a few weeks ago in June! We can benefit from the late chasers who bid the stock up in June, and are now sitting a a big loss, worried about what the next week or two might bring. I will start by putting in low-ball bids on Monday, and know that I likely have time to acquire my uranium stocks, I don’t have to chase, I can wait for them to come down to me at my bid levels, or near the 200 day MA’s, etc.

Fission Uranium is not only pulling back like the others to its 200 day MA, we can also see that area coincides with old resistance, which is now support) in the 38 cent level. This and UEX are more speculative names, so be sure to size your positions correctly according to your risk tolerance. Position size is the single more important factor in a trader’s results, members can learn more about how I determine correct position sizes for my system in the tabs above. I won’t likely bet too heavy in FCUUF or UEXCF to start, but I could end up buying a lot if the trades are working well for me after I get involved, as I like adding to winning trades.

The last uranium stock I’m going to mention today is UROY, which readers have seen mentioned a lot lately in recent posts, as it’s the only uranium stock I own at the moment. Being a royalty company, it should have less risk than outright miners with their concentrated, capital intensive investments. We can also see in the chart that while UROY is pulling back with the group, it is not dropping as harshly, nor is it as close to its 200 day MA yet as the others. I WILL BE ADDING TO UROY, probably before I buy the others, since it is acting better and I will be adding to a winner on it’s pullback, my favorite trade setups. Like with the others, I will put in lowball offers this week and wait for fills to come to me. If I don’t get many fills, I can always decide on which stocks I will pay the current price, UROY is one I would be ok doing that, but I still think I might be able to get it cheaper, maybe close to its 200 day MA. That is down near $2, and while 50 cents further decline does not sound like much, its still a 20% drop from here, so patience is a virtue!

Miners were weak enough that I was stopped out of 5 miners, and decided to trim a portion of my SILJ holdings. Members can check daily account screenshots for specifics on total holdings remaining, average cost, etc. I was stopped out of the following today….DV.V, PGM.TO, AAG.V, ISVLF, and AMXEF (though AMXEF was not actually a stop out, just close enough to the stop price and small enough position to jettison it). I also trimmed some SILJ, but still maintain heavy exposure at the moment.

When I stop out of positions like this, it does not mean I’m negative on the group or anything in my analysis has changed, its simply that the stock has dropped to a level where I no longer want to hold it to wait and discover what is “wrong”. My suspicion is that none of this is related to the miners specifically, they are down without company specific news to justify it in each case. That doesn’t mean we don’t sell, but it does mean we might even buy them back at some point. I typically like to give them some time before hopping back in, however, of the 30 positions or so that I manage, these 5 have proven to be weak enough that they came down to their stop-out levels.

It was a tough week, with SILJ down over 8%! I’m going to leave you with the WEEKLY chart of SILJ, then get away from the computer to keep my sanity! LOL I will have more observations to share this weekend, after I have a chance to digest how the markets are transitioning. It’s possible I might need to make some substantial portfolio changes, for example if the new “delta variant” of Covid is used as an excuse to shut down the world economy again, or shutter mines. For now, I won’t act on fear or emotion, instead will wait for this stretched extreme short term to normalize, then assess how things are shaping up. Losing is part of the game, we must do it gracefully so it doesn’t get out of control, let your stops do their job!

While SILJ stochastics are oversold on the weekly chart, one could argue its heading down to test its 200 week MA (moving average). I trimmed about 15-20% of my SILJ holdings today, members can log in to see the exact figures, but I remain bullish. I will look to put the proceeds to work again, perhaps at lower prices, or in my best performing miners, maybe in entirely different groups. I need to see if I can figure out what is driving this perceived turn in markets, is it more covid fears and economic slowdown that comes with it, or maybe just a correction in commodity and value stocks? We will know more before Monday, and I’m prepared to make any necessary changes, as long as they are necessary and not driven by fear or emotion!

With miners getting hit again today, I am getting fills on some orders to buy I left in below the market prices of the last few days. I added to my GDXJ Jan 2023 expiry LEAP calls (added to loser), and also brought up my MUX holding (added to winner) to a full position now. I am also very close to stopping out of a few positions, will update if it occurs. In the uranium area, I added to my winner in UROY, as I look to bring it up to a full position. Here is the daily chart of GDXJ, sure looks ugly, but they always look their worst before they change for the better, just like its always darkest just before dawn. This has been a relentless pullback, lets see if I can survive it, even make money from it!

Members get specifics like stop levels I’m using, average prices paid and total position sizes for all holdings, as well as unrealized gains and losses with their subscription.

While I am not stopping out of PSLV etf (Sprott Physical Silver etf), I keep an eye on the ratio between the miners and the physical metals for times like this where one outperforms the other drastically. It can be a good time to make the switch to a different, but related investment. From the chart below you can see that physical silver has been doing much better than it’s miners for awhile now. I will take the bet that this ratio is overdone and soon we will see the relationship reverse like usual. In this case I’ve decided to liquidate my PSLV holdings and will use the proceeds to get more invested in silver and gold miners over the next few days. The first stage, the sale is complete, now I just need to get the money back to work while miners are trading at low prices. The list of prospects has been mentioned here many times already, like I have already added some more MUX (McEwen MIning) today, and though not a silver miner, I added copper royalty company NOVRF (Nova Royalty Corp) on this decline today. I might even put the proceeds into an etf like GDXJ or SILJ, if individual names don’t offer up a buy opportunity or start to move higher without me. I also have had a bid in all day for more WLBMF shares (Wallbridge Mining), and Canadian junior gold explorer. Here is the ratio chart of SILJ:PSLV, note it is “oversold” on the daily stochastics, but know the weekly chart stochastics are as well.

I am also close to stopping out of a couple junior miners, and will keep members posted if I sell. I will continue to add in the pullback to MUX until I get a full position, it’s almost there. I’m still looking to add to every name I have been buying recently, it just depends on which one is offering up the best opportunity each day. Members can see the loss I took on PSLV today, as well as my revised stop levels, and new total position sizes in the tabs above.

Please note I’m using the weekly charts in the charts below, because that is the time frame with the most attractive signal at the moment, the most oversold technicals. With regard to GDXJ, I already own some LEAP call options not expiring until Jan 2023, so I will likely focus there for my additional purchases. As usual, I will bid for them and be patient since there is no rush and miners have not yet proven they can hold their strength each day of late. If I get filled on the GDXJ LEAPS it will be adding to a losing position, so requires I keep an eye on it, since with more size but the same total risk I’m allowing, it means I give each LEAP less room on the downside before stopping out. In any case, I still have example room being I am not near full position in this idea yet. Weekly chart below…

Another stock I’m interested in buying on the pullback is Altius Minerals (ATUSF), another commodity play and Rick Rule’s favorite stock as of a month or two ago. I saw one of his interviews on youtube, and he was very positive on the fundamentals, visit the company site to better understand what they do at altiusminerals.com

Again, we see the stock is oversold on the weekly charts, and also made new 52 week highs not too long ago, typically a good setup in my trading. I’m not buying at the market, but sitting on a bid below the current price, hoping for a drift lower to fill me. Patience pays, either I get filled at a great price, or I don’t, and I just scope out the next opportunity that is always around the corner!

These are in addition to the names mentioned in prior posts over the last week or two, like MUX, KWEB, DSVSF, URNM, etc. Members can see all changes, buys and sells, and adjusted stop prices, along with unrealized profit and loss and total position sizes in the tabs above.

So far, all I have done today is nibble on some more shares of MUX, adding to the pile and now right up near a “full position”, as defined by my total risk on the position. Should the stock go higher, I can always add easily as long as I keep my total risk fixed. Some recent leaders in the mining group are looking as if they want to stop dropping and maybe turn higher. A chart of interest to me and representative of my observation, is a stock like Hecla Mining (HL). While I no longer own this one outright, it is a large holding in the SILJ etf, which I am heavily invested in. Take a peek at the chart,and notice the stochastics, MACD, etc all oversold and turning higher on this daily chart, but its happening on the weekly chart as well, for those that need even more confirmation.

Another one I mentioned yesterday was DSVSF (Discovery Silver) as one I wanted to add to my holdings, but today we see a classic “false breakdown” below the 200 day MA on the daily chart. If this strength can hold or build on itself, DSVSF is another that looks as if its decided to turn and go higher for awhile. I already have a full position on this stock, but long time readers will know I often go over the amount of shares I originally planned based on my total risk, as long as I keep my total risk fixed I can get bigger positions because I also have unrealized gains as part of the cushion. This allows me to get much more aggressive in winning positions, meaning positions in which I have unrealized gains. Nice chart, take a look.

Unfortunately, I was a little to stingy with my bid prices yesterday, so didn’t get any extra shares in KWEB (up 4% as I type), or NOVRF (jumping another 9.5% so far). While I already have decent sized positions, on the items I wanted to add to, I will now have to make a decision whether to add into strength or not. I will decide before the close, can always add later in the week, as well. Let’s see what sets up, or if we get a mid-day pullback to let me buy more shares. It might just end up being one of those great days for a trader, where he can sit back and watch his accounts grow without doing too much, since all the work was done ahead of time! Members should check the other tabs above to find current stop levels when they have been adjusted, and position sizes, unrealized gains and losses, etc.