Not much to report, but I am going to put this post out now rather than wait until after the close, since the intraday technicals on my stocks have already reached oversold. I followed my plan and have orders in to buy at price limits below the market, there is no need to pay up when we are in the middle of a two day pullback so far. What I expect is soon, either today or tomorrow, we will see the miners start weak but close near unchanged or even positive on the day. That will be the sign the pullback is over and we should look out for how high the next rally can take us.

I have heard people around the internet capitulating. For example, Gary Savage over at Smart Money Tracker in a video interview with GoldCore yesterday said he is disillusioned with miners so won’t trade them again!!! WOW! What a strong statement, and a typical sign of capitulation from a person that has traded them close to 20 years, if I’m not mistaken. I’m not picking on him, but do think public statements like this are almost always a strong sign we are not only closer to the bottom than the top, but maybe near the start of something big!

For now, I will just post a DAILY chart of the GDXJ with fibonacci retracement levels to give us an idea where support might come in. I used GDXJ because I have limit orders out there trying to buy below the bid if it can get a quick drop lower, one I hope won’t last too long, just long enough for us to pick up more shares.

Just a quick update after the long holiday, since I didn’t have much that needed to be said after last week’s nice close on Friday. However, I wanted to lay out today’s game plan before the open, so readers can know what I might buy and when.

Since the mining etfs closed in their middle to upper range in regards to intraday technicals on Friday, there won’t be any trade setups for the first hour, at least. This is welcome since it will allow us to watch out buy list to see which are holding up the best as the technicals pull back to oversold later in the the morning or even the afternoon.

A day or two pull back now will not alter our opinions on the sector at all, we will use it to buy more. Some names we might buy or add to are NGD, PGM.V, AUY, IRVRF, OCGSF, IAG and several others. I will post a couple charts below, but lets see which look best after the group gets sold lower on the market open.

I will mention that the bigger miner etfs like GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ all traded above their 50 day moving averages for most of the day on Friday, a very positive sign, but they did not hold above the MAs, and chose to pull back just below the line. We expect they will get over and stay over their 50 MA’s soon, even this week, so its something to keep our eyes on.

Here is PGM.V (PureGold Mining)…

And here is NGD (New Gold)…

Lastly, Outcrop Gold is a more speculative junior miner but reported great drill results this morning. When this one gets moving it can really run, so its just a waiting game at this point. We have shares, but are not yet up to a full-risk position size, so will continue to bid for shares below the market.

Not much to report today, it’s pretty quiet before Labor Day on Monday, so it won’t surprise me if tomorrow is similar. While I love the markets, at least when they traded freely, I also have things I would rather do than sit at the computer pecking the keyboard like a monkey when opportunities are limited. In fact, we had only one small trade today, a partial fill on out IRVRF (Irving Resources) buy limit order.

Since I don’t like wasting people’s time or my own, let me just post a weekly chart of IRVRF so you have an idea of the potential this stock has. Irving is an extremely high-grade explorer in Japan, and a favorite of Bob Moriarty over at 321gold.com, and last I knew it was his largest holding. It’s tightly held (most shares in the hands of a few people that are in it for the long haul), and we made a very nice score on this stock our first time around. It’s time to get involved again, in my opinion, so that is what we are doing. I don’t like chasing stocks or paying up, so I just sit on the bid or slightly below, and take in any shares that people cannot stand holding anymore. It’s worked before, it will work again. Here is the WEEKLY chart of IRVRF….

There wasn’t much action today, at least nothing set up or dropped to oversold technicals enough in our charts to warrant any action. We didn’t make any changes, just sat and waited patiently for setups to occur, and saw accounts creep higher in value again. It’s looking to me (Paul), like miners are just digesting the big gains made recently, and fueling up the tank for the next big day or two, which should be this week.

Outside of miners, we had KWEB, the China Internet etf jump 4% today, and now up 5.5% on the week, also looking to me like it wants to make a run higher. On the daily chart, notice the fibonacci retracement to the 50% level is close to the 200 day MA as well? When we see two popular indicators meet in the same area, it means many people are focusing on it, and makes it more likely to be achieved in the future. This means I expect KWEB to get up near $74 at least in this trade, maybe taking 5-9 more months to get there, but possibly much quicker. We will look to add to the KWEB etf when it gets oversold on an intraday basis, or even on a daily chart, though that isn’t likely to happen this week from the looks of the chart below.

Generally speaking, the miners were a decent group today as they managed to close higher by 1-2%, however some of the junior explorers were weaker and pulled back. I might add to some juniors during the rest of the week, but I don’t feel pressed to buy anything heavily or quickly. We can afford to wait now that the trend appears to have turned higher, and we already have large positions. I liked to see EQX (Equinox Gold) get its act together and be strong all day, closing at the highs, up over 5.5% on the day, so it was a standout worth mentioning and we might add at the next opportunity, being our position went into the green today (unrealized P+L when positive). Here is EQX, looking like it could easily make a drive straight to the 200 day MA around $8.60. Importantly, note the gap there created back in mid-June. That gives us another reason to think EQX getting up there is close to a sure bet, it could have much more in it, but I would at least expect we test the 200 MA.

In short, it’s not too late to get involved for what is shaping up to be a big run for the mining sector. If you don’t own them yet, days like we’ve had the last few don’t offer much better opportunities to join the party. Take advantage of the scared traders that can’t hold positions for more than a couple days, and scoop up the shares in which they are taking small profits, because this group can really get flying once momentum kicks in!

After a big week last week, and very strong close on Friday, today was a day of digesting the gains with a very modest pullback. We took advantage by adding to a few positions after waiting for the technical indicators on the 30 min bar charts to come down to oversold levels. Late morning we were able to add to a couple positions, things that haven’t yet gotten away from us on the upside, since we hate to chase prices higher. We bought more SILJ LEAP options that expire in Jan. 2023, and some shares in junior explorer Outcrop Gold (OCGSF), which is a stock we made big gains in 2019-2020, now looking like it might have bottomed out with the sector. We don’t just trade the options on SILJ, as we have a large position in the shares alongside the the options we added to today, but while the ATR’s (average true ranges) of most miners right now is low in comparison to the last year or two, along with the implied volatility being subdued relatively speaking, it makes the options contracts more attractive for a buyer.

We also had several limit orders out there, hoping to add to some miners on the intraday pullback, including MXROF, AUMN, IRVRF, and NGD but were not filled. That’s OK, we will remain patient and try again at the next opportunity, now that the half hour bar charts (intraday) have made a “golden cross” to the upside, where the 50 bar moving average has crossed above the 200 bar MA. We are confident the turn is here for the sector, as the 200 bar MA is also now about to turn and start trending higher, so it’s very much time to be invested if one isn’t already!

A few charts to consider…

Friday was not only a huge up day for our accounts as the miners decided to take off higher to end the week, the more significant event is that the day appears to have confirmed we are in a new intermediate cycle for gold, silver and miners. This suggests we should have around 6 months of higher prices, how much gains could be had we cannot know, but it is very much time to be heavily long precious metals miners. I will not be the least surprised if we take out the highs of last August in the GDX and HUI index, for example, and by a wide margin. The setup seems about as perfect as it can get, and we are betting big on this outcome. Stay tuned and see how we do, members can see just how much we made on Friday alone by accessing our daily account screenshots in the tabs above.

Many would be bulls have not yet bought, after being punished the past 12 months they are scared into inaction, or more common is they are buying way too lightly. Opportunities like this don’t come by often, when they do its important to recognize it as soon as possible and get substantially invested. A trade setup like this can change your whole life, so don’t wait if you see what I see, each day one misses that miners jump 10% really cuts into their overall returns. The way to make the big money is to be in big, and early, so as to benefit from compounding, and there are still many miners that are just leaving the gate. Let’s look at some charts, many are just now jumping back above their 200 day MA (sign of a bull), and taking out recent highs confirming we have an intermediate cycle low behind us now. In addition, long term supports on many weekly and monthly charts held up after being tested recently.

I frequently get asked about my allocation to gold miners versus silver miners as I get invested. I am more heavily into silver miners at this time because I think silver has more upside potential and I want to take part. However, I really like the silver miners for another reason, its because they are almost all 50% or more gold miners too! There are very few purely silver miners, so when we buy in SILJ, for example, we have roughly 35-40% exposure to the silver side, and 55-60% gold miners. The point is stocks like PAAS, HL, MAG, AUY and the other large holdings in the SILJ etf will be flying along with gold miners, even if silver takes some time to take off as a lagger. Of course, later in the move we would expect silver to take the lead, and that is why I want to be sure to have my miners taking silver out of the ground as well.

I also get asked about allocation to junior explorers, miners like MGMLF, BKRRF, IRVRF, MXROF, and similar stocks. While I own each already, at this early stage in the resumption of the bull move higher, we would expect the “bigger juniors” and even the big cap miners to move higher first, and with less risk. It doesn’t have to play out like that, but it is what history suggests, and it can get frustrating to watch things like GDX rise in an uptrend when a junior still isn’t yet finding lots of buyers. I think they will almost all go up a lot in this bull move, but I also like to have a good size position in something like SILJ which will definitely rise if the group and gold/silver rise. My point is we might still have time to buy more into the junior explorers, maybe even after taking some decent profits in the bigger miners first. That said, we did just buy IRVRF this week, but my focus remains on SILJ, GDXJ, and their component stocks.

Not a lot of action today, at least in the markets, though plenty in the news such as the crisis in Afghanistan. I will keep the post short and to the point, as there wasn’t even an intraday buy signal in the mining sector until late in the afternoon. We added to our Wallbridge Mining (WLBMF) shares, but that was our only activity today. We will look to add to this position as we are not yet up to a full-risk size, but there is no rush as we are heading into September which is historically the weakest month of the year (for the general markets). It feels like we are in the “quiet before the storm” period, so will keep some powder dry to take advantage of potentially lower prices, though I still think the lows might already be behind us.

Let’s looks at the WEEKLY chart of Wallbridge Mining, one of Eric Sprott’s largest junior explorer holdings the last time I checked his SEDI holdings here. I’ve included the fibonacci retracement levels from the most recent low of the year-long pullback to the all-time high, which strangely enough occurred after the August 2020 high the sector made, when it made a second and higher high. This was an obvious show of strength, and one reason it was on my buy list. I expect Wallbridge to perform among the best once the group turns around.

Wallbridge Mining’s weekly chart shows a nice uptrend, with plenty of upside and new all-time high in Sept.

Trendlines are very subjective in nature, so some might not agree with how I have drawn the uptrend, but that isn’t the most important takeaway from the chart. Prices don’t lie, and they have been in an overall uptrend for a few years now. With this lengthy pullback time-wise, to old resistance levels which should now be support, when would one buy into this stock if they wouldn’t do so now? 🙂

It’s a half hour before the close of trading today, but the day has been more quiet than anything else. In fact, I only made one transaction today, a buy adding to my EQX (Equinox Gold) position. Members received real time alerts, and should access the tabs above to see total position sizes, as well as other pertinent information like unrealized gains and losses. We show the actual account statements here each day after the close of trading, unlike any other site I have visited, so make good use of it!

Let’s looks at EQX. I’m showing the weekly chart below…

With not many trades to report, all I can say is today was a typical day after a big move up in the days prior. We are still looking to add into oversold technical situations, which is when we picked up the extra EQX today, into a late morning pullback. Basically everything we own is pulling back slightly after the surge higher on Monday. That applies to things outside of the mining sector too, like our KWEB etf (Chinese internet giants), so there wasn’t much to do other than wait and watch for the next opportunity. We are loaded up, but still have a good amount of cash to access if something sets up correctly. If not, we will be content to sit with what we already own.

I didn’t have time to write up a recap yesterday, but it was a stellar day for the precious metals and miners. Big day, big reversal, and more importantly than the gains, was the fact the HUI gold miners index closed above the breakdown level on the charts I posted over the last few days, the 247-248 level. This serves as confirmation that it was a “false breakdown”, which usually serve to washout out the last weakened longs before a sustainable bull move higher.

I also mentioned last week that James Flanagan at Gann Global was looking for this to occur, to confirm his analogs suggesting not only have miners bottomed out, but this could very well be lining up to be one of the largest rallies in the sector over the next couple years. At the moment, he is offering a discount to help people get on board for what he feels might be a historic move, so here is a link to watch his most recent video and more on the offer. I am in no way compensated by him or Gann, no affiliation whatsoever, I just appreciate his work. His video is very interesting to say the least, and if I recall correctly he has only issued 4 buy recommendations in the last 25 years with similar potential, so he isn’t shooting at anything that moves, so to speak. He waits patiently for the most optimal setups then acts fast and aggressive, or does nothing at all for long periods of time. My own research and charts confirm what his work suggests, that miners might be embarking on a huge move of several hundred percent over the next few years. All this is in regard to precious metals miners, and I will post a few charts of those indexes and etfs, but even China’s KWEB got into the action in a major way today, up 11%!! We made up over half out unrealized losses just today. There has been too much to cover in this one post, so I will try to post more frequently this week, maybe a couple posts each day until we cover everything happening. It will be more important to do so as we near our next action points, like the next time to add to positions, but for now they are taking off and we don’t like buying into strength in downtrends, which is the case right now. We will wait patiently for a pullback to make additional buys. We are happy to have been adding heavily late last week, turned out to be a fortunate decision.

Let’s review a few charts, first we can see KWEB with a close to ideal MONTHLY setup, note the stochastics not only oversold but now turned and trying to emerge from the zone. Recall that this was a signal we expected to be in for 6-10 months or so.

Now lets go to some miners charts.

SILJ etf WEEKLY chart with Fibonacci levels.

Moving further out, lets take a look at the GDXJ MONTHLY chart where the 50% Fibonacci retracement level has come into play. It’s already been tested and now starting back higher…

This GDXJ chart and the some other miner etfs that look similar are all suggesting huge potential upside over the long haul. It won’t likely be a straight up rocket ride, there will be pullbacks all along the way, but these charts tell us to be long and strong, we will try to hold on tight as the gains could be spectacular!

I will try to make more posts with charts of individual miners each day, to show readers what we are seeing, but it looks good. Even better, many people are now washed out and thoroughly sick of miners, so have no interest in buying ever again, just as they look to have put in a bottom. We are looking to add on dips, when and if they come, but miners are famous for flying once they get started, and not making it easy to wait for confirmation without missing a big part of the move. It’s the best of all worlds for a trader and investor, and it might turn out that the biggest risk is selling out too early!

Long term charts have more significance because they not only show more history but have wider ranges and more contact points for items such as trendlines. Here we see the HUI MONTHLY chart with fibonacci retracements connecting the bear market low in beginning of 2016 to the bull market high in August 2020, with the all-important 50% retracement coming in at the 237-238 area, and 238 was tested just today, Friday, August 20, 2021.

And that isn’t all! The horizontal trendline touching the highs supports and resistances over the last 20 years also sits right in that area, about 238 on the HUI. Combine the above with the likelihood that as the month ends we will see the stochastics reach oversold (if we close here or lower), all suggest the is an ideal area for the index to find support, and perhaps mount it’s next long term bull trend higher. Something to think about this weekend! 🙂

If I had to rely on just a single chart to trade the bull market in precious metals miners, this would be it!