I haven’t had much to report, being I have been getting shelled and just trying to manage my psychology so that I don’t make mistakes or act out of fear. On that note, I have tried to keep accounts accurate as to positions by reporting when I make transaction, but few have slipped by. Overall, my holdings and stops page on this site is quite accurate, except for a couple small sales I did in SILJ to keep accounts margin compliant, and not in risk of forced liquidations. Yes, it got scary there for a little while, but anybody that knows metals and miners knows they move quickly in both directions, and just a week or two later, we see an 18.8% gain today alone, on top of an already decent week. In short, I did not sell any more than I absolutely had to, because I still think this trade will work out well in time.

I remain in the trade because I am starting to see things fall into place in other areas of the markets, not just up days in the miners. For example, the general stock market now goes down more often than it goes up, and when its up, its either inconsequential or it can’t hold the gains and sells off. Today was another example, while stocks didn’t get clobbered, they couldn’t rally all day, only to sell off sharply into the last few minutes before the close so that the QQQ´s ended down over 1%. Likewise, previous supposed competition for gold, the crypto stocks also cannot hold a bid. Bitcoin used to jump thousands of dollars per day, now it can’t bounce much when it is due to bounce, and if it bounces, the rallies get stymied by selling. Bitcoin keeps hanging around the important $40K level, but acts like it has work to do on the downside before it mounts any serious rallies, likewise with many cryptos. A third note is the US dollar fell out of bed rather quickly, faster than I had anticipated to be honest. Readers know I am not a big fan of using the USD charts to predict where gold is going, mostly because the USD index is just the dollar vs other fiat paper currencies, not gold, so to me it seems of limited use. But since many do watch it, there is a bit of a self-fulfilling item there, and in any case, the US Dollar now has a failed daily cycle which also might lead to an intermediate cycle decline, or some have even said a yearly or 8 year cycle decline. Imagine that, how quickly things change, when just a few weeks ago NOBODY would consider touching a miner, today they appear to be the only game in town!

As far as new positions and closed trades, I took profits on a long-side trade in Vale LEAP options, and have also started a position long in the UNG (Natural Gas etf) LEAPS. I will continue to look to add to my Natural Gas position as it triggered buy signals a week ago on both the MONTHLY and WEEKLY technical charts. I will also look to add to miners on dips, since they arer the group that just came into focus, no need to dump the idea of buying miners so soon, when this move is not only just starting and in the seasonal strong time for the group, but the move could also be huge, if it turns out to be the beginning of the last and biggest leg of the bull market. Its too soon to tell, but we don’t want to leave this idea too soon, just because it put us through some pain for awhile first. It’s just part of the game, and we must do what we have to, in order to stay balanced and focused. I will admit that this setup (miners and precious metals) has tested me more than most, being I am more heavily invested in this group than I usually would go, being I anticipate the Federal Reserve bank to start raising rates soon and that has always proven good for miners, especially in this type environment with low rates and slowly rising to stem inflation. I assume, maybe mistakenly, that they will keep their word, but so far the markets seem to be believing what they say.

Now that we are getting some action, I will once again promise to be more active on this site. Not only should I have plenty of action to report on the miners and metals, but I see some old, short-term trading methods I used in the past starting to work again. These setups are signals off the 30 minute bar charts (intraday), and typically last 3 to 5 hours and can extend into the next morning, at times go as long as a couple days when they really work well. I see these setups presenting themselves once again, so am happy to take the trades as the signals come, I will report all buys and sells here, along with my account statements as always.

I am also see some breakouts form significant levels and patterns on the charts I have been watching most lately. For example, gold is just now breaking out (today) from its triangle pattern going back to the high in made very early in 2021. Silver is also taking out important levels and the next stop should be the 200 day MA just above, while miners made new recent highs, and gold, silver, and miners all made big gains on quite heavy volume, lending credence to the move up. Even better, according to Michael Oliver, whose work I respect greatly, silver is now very close to a weekly close above his trigger levels that would confirm the next big move up is about to begin. Since his is a paid service, I will just say it’s not far away, probably less that 30 cents away from today’s close. We also see gold is back above all three important moving averages, the 10, 50, and 200 day MAs, and broke above the most recent high at 1833, suggesting we are back in an uptrend. Regarding the moving averages, please note they are not only all sitting on top of each other in perfect order, the shortest term above the 50 day, which is above the 200 day MA, they also are starting to spread out from each other. While that is not a guarantee this will be the BIG move, it is how the biggest moves begin. The Volume by Price horizontal bars also suggest gold has just cleared its biggest resistance areas as defined by volumes traded in that range. There are too many charts to show readers to catch up in just one day, so I will leave you with the $Gold futures daily chart since everything else in the group is driven mostly by gold. Over the next few days I will not only post charts of specific miners and etfs, but also other timeframes for both the precious metals and miners, since I am most interested in the longer term setups on this trade idea.

Just a quick extra post of something I noticed as I was going over the charts this weekend, both the SIL (Silver Miners etf) and SILJ (Silver Junior Miner etf) are sitting on their uptrend lines for this cycle on the daily charts. I will post the charts below, but must add that both GDX and GDXJ are not yet testing their trend lines, so we might not get an immediate bounce. However, I would not expect much downside in any of the funds I mentioned above, and the silver miner etfs look even better, in my opinion. Keep in mind, most silver miners are actually near 50/50 in production of both silver and gold, another reason I prefer the so-called “silver miners”, an investor is already exposed to gold as well.

It was a week of drawdowns, but nothing serious. The precious metals miners have been on a solid run for several weeks and we are quite happy with our portfolio gains, some of our juniors have been on fire (like DSVSF gaining 107.7% already from its Sept. 27 low), so we should expect a week or two of corrections or sideways action. While it can be uncomfortable to ride through these periods, they occur more often than not in bull markets, and trying to avoid pain by hopping in and out can prove to be very costly, when one finds himself out on the sidelines as the bull decides to re-ignite. I’ve learned to sit tight and rather than sell, I look for areas to add to my positions. One positive outcome during the pullbacks, is that the technicals are allowed to cool off a bit, which give the bull more upside potential when the bull kicks in again. Related to our recent positions, the weekly stochastics were getting into overbought territory, and while now yet flashing a sell signal, they can now “reset”, so that the next push higher has more room to run before the technicals get near the next sell signal. The only concern is that the miners dont pull back too hard or too far, while we wait for the next launch higher. On that end, so far, so good. Miners show strength more often than not, and declines have been muted compared to the positive days of gains. Also, we see may mornings the group will open lower, only to find a low and work higher the rest of the day, thus climbing the proverbial “wall of worry”.

I’m going to post a few links to material I found useful, in fact I just got done watching Michael Oliver’s newest interview with the WallStreetSilver Reddit crew. I really respect his analysis, being he focuses much more on momentum than price, something I do in my own analysis as well. His thought is momentum changes lead price changes, and he has a great track record in the few years I have known about his work. Click here to watch the twenty minute video. Mr. Oliver says both gold and the SIL etf (silver miners) have confirmed bullish momentum breakouts already, and he expects the other etfs to follow.

On that note, let me post a link to a basic FINVIZ filter I use, showing the number of gold miners above BOTH their 50 day and 200 day moving averages. A month or 6 weeks ago there was almost nobody on the list, but that changed quickly, where the filter now shows 17 miners on the list, not bad considering most were down on the week. The week before there were over 25 names on the list, showing us that many miners are back into bull trends, as defined by trading above critical moving averages.

Next, let me post both the daily and weekly charts of the GDX etf. At first glance, one might get concerned about GDX closing below its 200 day MA, but recall that we assume support and resistance will hold, which would imply it wont be too long before GDX is back above the support line. In fact, I would wager GDX is a better buy here than it is a short setup. If it weren’t for near overbought technicals, I would be a buyer here. Actually, I nibbled very lightly on Friday, though it was a small buy until another week or two pass and the stochastics are not near overbought any longer. I will add again if GDX doesn’t immediately bounce and continue its path to overbought.

One final note, I don’t usually pay much attention to government funded institutions or industry mouthpieces and what they have to say, being they are often more propaganda than truth, but I found this report from the Silver Institute quite interesting. I have not yet confirmed if their numbers are correct or not, but if so, I don’t see a better place to be invested as we head into 2022.

The Silver Institute says “With each significant component of silver demand forecast to rise in 2021, global silver demand is set to reach 1.29 billion ounces, the first time it has exceeded 1 billion ounces since 2015.”, and later mention mining supply, “In 2021, mined silver production is expected to rise by 6% year-on-year to 829 Moz.” Lets hope they are correct!

I haven’t posted in over a week, and while nothing earth-shattering has occurred to report on, several things are worth noting. For example, today Pretium Resources (PVG) was bought out by Newcrest from Australia, and while the purchase price is only about a 23% premium from Monday’s close, the stock of PVG is still up over 56% in the last six weeks. It’s good to see takeovers ramping up in the mining sector, yet I still hope my holdings don’t sell out after 56% rallies, I think we can make a whole lot more if we push for more.

Lets go to some general market and mining sector observations. As the stock market continues to go straight up overall, I am starting to see some weakness in various groups that is not being met with big buying. Instead, some stocks are choosing to continue lower, or are only able to rally marginally. However, the miners are holding it well, and they seem to get bought back up after weak openings, or just plod higher several days in a row. Here we see GDXJ (the junior gold miners etf) making a new high for this bounce as I type…

And GDX pulled back to it’s 50% fibonacci retracement level, then tried to break below the 50 day moving average, only to reverse and get back to it’s rally…

So things look like they are shaping up in the precious metals sector, as gold itself is now back above it’s 200 MA, leading the sector higher…

Not to be confused with a one-trick pony, I am always looking for signals in any and all groups to get involved. On that note, some base metal commodities like iron-ore have pulled back substantially. While I am concerned that more economically sensitive commodities might take a break for a year or so after huge rallies they had recently, some are pulling back to levels where I am getting interested at these prices, if not so much in this timing band. I think most of the downside should be behind such stocks at Vale (Brazilian iron-ore, copper, nickel, etc miner), I also don’t expect much more than sharp bounces that sell off again, here and there until enough time passes that they can start another sustainable uptrend. However, with prices so beaten down on stocks like Vale, I have taken a small position to force me to be involved and look for the big turn higher, whenever it resumes. Here are the daily, weekly, and monthly charts, oversold on all time frames, if I was a short term trader, I would buy this one just for a bounce…

All in all, things are shaping up nicely for our accounts. I have yet to start acquiring the marijuana stocks, though they are also very oversold on longer term charts, and have not yet added to my China internet giants etf, though a good smackdown in the US markets would have me drooling to buy more, since the Chinese internet stocks like BABA, BIDU, and TCEHY have already pulled back hard. I suspect they haven’t mounted a sustainable rally yet, because they could be anticipating a decline in the US markets, which would likely keep a lid on much upside in the KWEB etf in the near term.

This is a quick Monday morning update since I have several things to mention. First, the precious metals miners are continuing their rebound out of oversold technicals. We remain heavily long for now, and the absolute earliest we might decide to trim some holdings would be when the sector reaches overbought on the WEEKLY technicals, which is at least a week or two away from now. Even then, if we do any selling at all, we will limit it to 20-30% of holdings, and stick to our plan, keeping 70-80% for the much longer term MONTHLY signal, which is still many months away from any sell signal. So far, so good with this sector, as more names each day pop back above their 200 and 50 day moving averages, suggesting the uptrend is back in place. This filter on the Finviz website shows 11 miners are now back above both moving averages, whereas two weeks ago it was zero! The same filter with silver miners shows they are just getting going, with only one miner on the list (MAG Silver).

The above is not surprising to see, considering gold futures are now back over their 200 day MA as well…

If one does not yet own gold and silver miners, or at least the metals themselves, it is time to get heavily long. Actually, the best time to do substantial buying was several weeks ago, but for those that like confirmation and realize the commodities bull is nowhere near finished, buying what they can comfortably hold through pullbacks seems like a very wise move right now. We have seen many associates in the trading world get knocked out of their miners this year, but it isn’t often we hear a legend like Pierre Lassonde speak so strongly on the opportunity just in front of us, suggesting we “buy miners until it hurts!”. He also says we are witnessing a perfect 50 year storm in favor of gold, in this interesting podcast over at KingWorldNews. I highly recommend people spend the 12 minutes to hear what he is seeing, in his own words.

I am seeing more and more stocks regain their strength, and just head of earnings reporting season, like EQX for just one example pushing back above its 200 day MA…

In other areas of the markets, we mentioned last time a possible buy signal in the marijuana stocks, specifically the MJ etf. We have not yet bought, but we might initiate a position here soon. We are also on the lookout for a potential buy signal in the EWZ (Brazil) etf in the next few weeks, but for now our major focus remains on the miners as they are signals already in play. Here is a chart of the EWZ, so you can put it on your watch list for a possible buy opportunity…

As miners continue to go sideways the last few days up near recent highs, which I like, a new buy signal on the marijuana etf MJ is here. I have not bought any yet, as my major focus continues to be on the precious metals miners, but I will look to acquire some MJ etf (the Alternative Harvest etf) into the next oversold intraday technicals on the 30 minute bar chart. I was tempted to start buying some before the close fo trading today, but the marijuana stocks were closing at the high of the day, after a long, tedious downtrend day after day since the beginning of 2021. Waiting for that longer term downtrend to re-exert itself in the next day or two seems like a better bet to start buying, rather than chase a short-term overbought move, since they always seem to fizzle, at least in 2021 so far. It’s the same way I have been buying my miners, there is no good reason to chase moves up in the context of an overall downtrend, except for the day they make the turn higher permanently. If you can tell me when that is, I will change my buy strategy!

I will keep this post short, and just show you the daily, weekly, and long term monthly charts on the MJ etf, so you can see how oversold the technicals are. Of course, they can stay oversold for awhile, so we don’t want to go in too heavy at the first positive sign like we had today, there have been many other days like this in the last year, and MJ always manages to head lower again rather than turn the trend up. Trading is just a game of probabilities and risk management, not much more to it. Lets take a look at those charts….

Heading into the last half hour of trading today, I’m pleased to see the miners still up close to the highs today, and after a stellar day. This is the first day in a long time the miners made gains all throughout the day, and managed to hang onto them, so its a very encouraging sign. I wonder if the market is going to start treating the stagflationary possibility more seriously, and if so, precious metals and their miners should be a great place to be invested.

On top of that, its looks like the USD index might be topping out, or at least due for a break. I don’t put too much weight on the USD index when trading gold and silver, as it’s just a measure of one fiat trash paper vs the others, in my opinion meant to confuse investors and get them to take their eyes off the ball. Below is the daily dollar chart via the UUP etf, I won’t argue whether or not it has seen its 3 years cycle low already, or not, but its clear the dollar could have some downside near term, which should lend support to precious metals.

Another influence I am considering is that the commodities vs. gold relationship looks to be reversing today, after 15 months or so of gold under-performing the other commodities, that looks like it might be changing, more so because we see resistance and overbought technicals on the WEEKLY chart of the GSG:GLD ratio (the Goldman commodity etf with 50%+ oil in it, and only 6 or 8% gold vs. the GLD gold etf (100% gold). While I don’t expect any commodities to get too weak in this economic environment, it is time for gold to take the torch once again as world economies start to weaken for various reasons. If you ask me, the economies never fully recovered from the fiasco that was rearing its head BEFORE the covid event occurred, but now even with all the money printing, we are heading back to the realization of broken supply chains, most small businesses still closed down, not many people traveling, while many are losing their jobs for the now wise decision to NOT get injected with an experimental drug that looks like it makes one MORE vulnerable to the virus than if they did nothing, among other things. All this occurring in the face of central banks starting to tighten monetary policy, which is almost laughable but happening nonetheless. After all, they have to appear as if they are responsible! So while I would not short commodities in a zero interest rate world that is very likely to stay that way for some time, I still would bet on what I see will be the strongest commodities for the next year or so, gold and silver. Everything else has rocketed, while silver is still less than half its 1980 high price! Below is the WEEKLY GSG:GLD ratio chart, if this turns in earnest, we might be on the cusp of the final and strongest run in the gold bull yet. If the stock market starts lower, that will only add fuel to the fire. Get your miners, or get your metals, or some of both.

As I type I see that the intraday technicals have now pulled lower into oversold territory, so I will look to add to positions before the close, or tomorrow morning not long after markets open. I won’t be making large buys as we’re already loaded up for the ride, but I still like to remind myself what one should be looking to do, so they don’t make the mistake of taking profits way too soon or some other error. It’s time to BUY or HOLD, but nowhere near time to sell, despite most miner etfs being up 8 or so days out of the last 10.

Today we saw some follow through on the miners to the upside. This post will be short because nothing has changed, other than we added to our GDXJ etf position. We will look to do some more buying tomorrow if we can get the intraday technicals into oversold territory, which seems likely being they are already close to oversold intraday, and they are getting overbought on the daily chart. When markets put in bottoms, and especially after such extreme moves lower like we have witnessed in this sector the last 15 months or so, it gets difficult to buy the exact bottom. For example, today I noticed many amateur traders on various blogs stepping into miners with the hopes they have caught the bottom. Well, they might have bought the low, but it doesn’t matter the least, if they sell out after small gains, or on the first sign of weakness. They will just tell themselves they are being prudent, or managing risk, which sounds great except they are also guaranteeing they never make a big score, its that latter part that never gets mentioned or addressed!

So today we saw the HUI index finally break through the daily downtrend, which implies we have more upside soon, though does not guarantee it continues tomorrow. If the amateurs can get shaken out in the morning, enough to push the technicals to oversold on the 30 min bar charts intraday, we should be happy to but their stocks from them. Let them try again after miners rise another 5%, only to get scared out and give us their shares cheap once again….rinse and repeat. Its been a tough ride, but its just part of the game. If one has made it this far, now is definitely not the time to get out, its time to buy or add, or sit on our hands, but don’t give your shares away to a guy that has bigger nuts than you, it never pays! Here is the HUI gold bugs index, nice and simple….

Well let’s hope I have more to talk about soon, and today is a good example of some changes that are finally starting to occur. It has been one tough ride, I won’t deny it! Today we see a few things happening that always precede a trend change, for example the short term charts start to flip to positive before the long term charts show the strength.

While I didn’t make any changes today, thus have no trades to report, I want to show you what i noticed today. On top of the early weakness which was again reversed during the day to close positive, let me show you some charts. GDX, GDXJ, and SLV among others, all turned higher on the half-hour bar charts, in fact some are already showing a “golden cross” higher, basically confirming an uptrend on this very short term basis. We want to see more strength, and start turning the daily, weekly, then monthly charts higher again, but its a start!

Lastly, let’s back out and look at the daily GDX chart, which shows a PSAR buy signal triggered today. It’s the sole pink diamond on the far right side of the chart, and GDXJ again is similar with it’s own PSAR buy triggered today. I will also not that Bob Moriarty from 321gold.com wrote today in his article that he thinks the bottom is here. I respect his opinions and while nobody is right all the time, he gets darn close and should not be ignored. Keep in mind the miners have started weak in the mornings the last couple days, only to finish much stronger. Lots of bulls are out of positions right now, sitting on the sidelines and waiting for miners to turn higher. If this is the turn, they can gain upside momentum very quickly, so if I did not own miners yet, I would be making big buys tomorrow!

I won’t just run out and buy first thing tomorrow, but I will be ready to add to positions in strong names like Equinox Gold (EQX) once the stochastics reach oversold on the intraday charts. That could happen tomorrow later in the morning (at the soonest) or if not by the close tomorrow, then I should get a chance on Friday at some point, but I will wait until miners get oversold no matter what.

While it could still change in the future, sure enough my post yesterday suggesting the best bet is to always assume support and resistance will hold, was right on track. I will re-post the chart today, not to toot my own horn because lately there has been nothing to celebrate, but to show in real time how that rule comes into play. Today we are now back above the “breakdown”, proving its best to consider support and resistance as areas, rather than definitive lines in the sand.

Before I post the WEEKLY SLV chart again, I have a couple items of interest. First, over at KingWorldNews we have a short article directly addressing the silver miners and their recent beatings that you should consider. Can it get much worse, and if not, then what is the proper bet? I say higher, especially when we are seeing “historic” selling. We should ask ourselves WHO is doing all this selling, considering most investors have been running scared and selling for over a year now? Could they be pushing SILJ as low as possible to cover the shorts they use to steer prices lower, just before they do heavy buying to cover the shorts and go long the etf at the same time? My guess is YES, that is probably what is happening and we will know soon enough if I am correct. I did buy some more SILJ this morning with these thoughts in mind.

Another interesting occurrence is that the WallStreetSilver thread over at Reddit has caught fire with the number of new members joining each day now. We are seeing 2-3K new subs each day this week, after months of only 50 new members per day, if that. I will let you draw your own conclusion, but I can’t see how this is bad for silver!

Now, let’s go check on that SLV chart, we are looking at the hammer that formed on the last bar, which is this week…

Turns out the breakdown so far has turned into a reversal back higher, because the best bet is support and resistance will hold.