As today is the first day of the new monthly, its time again to review the long term charts as they have new data points this morning. Below I posted the SILJ monthly chart, but I could have posted any of the precious metals miners or metals etfs, since they all look very similar. That’s a good sign, it means sentiment across the group is synched up and near unanimous, as they all show oversold technicals such as stochastics and MACD now contracting as it begins its move back to the zero line. GLD and SLV also look the same, all that remains is to see how far and fast miners and metals can move as they have just started new daily cycles, and are looking to confirm new IC’s (intermediate cycles) next, which would extend the potential upside to 4 months or more. We are still looking to add into intraday weakness, and especially if we can get a few days in a row of lower prices, as the daily stochastics are now overbought. This suggests we might see a few days of lower prices, not guaranteed by any means, but if occurs we will add to our mid-sized silver miners, including HL, FSM, CDE, maybe PAAS, AG, and EXK as well.

Now that the FOMC announcement is behind us, and the miners acted well in the face on another .75% rate increase, we decided to add to our SILJ holdings this morning on the early dip in the first hour. We didn’t place any trades yesterday, instead just wanted to observe the market’s response to the Fed decision. Several important things occurred this week, including the breaking of many downtrend lines in the group, on their daily charts. Cycles followers also will note we now have confirmed Daily Cycle Lows in place, another good sign the turn higher has begun. Lastly, we are now seeing the stochastics on the weekly charts emerge out of oversold, same with the RSI (5), again suggesting the bounce has begun. Now we have to wait and see how far the move higher can go, and if it can “stick”, that is to say, keep it’s gains. For now, with a new daily cycle confirmed, we should expect 6-10 weeks of generally higher prices in the miners, but if we can get a new Intermediate Cycle confirmed in the group, then we could look for 4-6 months of higher prices. The cycles only suggest the probable direction, how far and fast they move is something we can never know ahead of time. We will continue to look to add into pullbacks, but are likely done buying for this week, as we are loaded up and have already had a decent bounce over the last couple of days. Below is a chart of SILJ showing the broken downtrend line, but just about every mining stock shows a similar pattern.

Equinox Gold is down roughly 60% in jus the last three months. We added to our position today, ahead of the FOMC announcement this afternoon. Typically, we would wait until after the news is out of the way, but so many miner charts look like the one below, we have to think a low is near, if it isn’t already behind us.

Below I posted the SILJ daily chart, and the CDE weekly chart going back 5 years, both with their clear downtrend lines from recent highs. One could wait until after the trend line is broken to the upside before buying, but with such drastically oversold technicals, I would rather add to positions here while the stochastics are oversold on the 30 minute bar chart intraday.

A break above these trend lines, combined with technical indicators coming out of oversold and new daily and intermediate cycles , all suggest a bottom is near.

Since the recent high in mid-April, the large-cap miner etf is down over 40%! It’s been painful to hold, but even if they go lower, now is not the time to sell miners as they sit in a strong area of support on the weekly chart, and almost all technical indicators are screaming oversold. We took advantage and added to out GDXU and HL (Hecla mining) positions, and might add some more this morning as the miners closed yesterday’s trading with oversold stochastics on the 30 min bar charts as well. Below are the daily and weekly charts of GDX.

We added to both Fortuna Silver (FSM) and First Majestic (AG) today, below is the weekly chart of FSM, again looking quite similar to the charts in previous posts, in an another area of possible support.

Another similar chart to the Hecla Mining weekly chart posted yesterday, going back 10 years, suggesting support could be found in the stock somewhere in the current zone.

While prices of miners remain near their 52 week lows, we are adding here and there to such names as Hecla Mining (HL), the largest silver producer in the United States. Last week, Hecla itself took advantage of the weakness, and bought out Alexco Resources for what might end up being a tremendous bargain, as Alexco (AXU) dropped from a high of $3.46 in early 2021, down to a recent price of 40 cents! If the mining executives are buying into this decline, we should be doing the same.

I drew a horizontal trend line where GDX could find support, and if it does soon, the recent decline below the trend line would become a classic “false breakdown”. Professionals know that more often than not, support and resistance will hold, so they use these apparent breakdowns and their accompanying higher liquidity to acquire large positions into the panic. The stochastics could go a little lower to be an ideal buy signal, but does not have to being the last rally out of oversold has not yet reached an overbought level, which last occurred in August 2020. The last oversold reading was in early 2021, so the GDX is due for a voyage north, and our bet is that one needs to be in them now, before the move occurs since miners can jump 10% plus in day when they start higher. Waiting just two or three days in that type of turn will really dampen returns if one understands compounding and its effects on a portfolio.