Lots of news out this Friday morning, and after a tough week for miners with the FOMC talking asset prices lower, we finally see a huge rebound attributed to several things. First, Yamana Gold received another surprise buyout offer from both Pan-American Silver (PAAS) and Agnico-Eagle (AEM), pushing AUY stock up over 20% on the day. This has investors wondering which miners might be next to get scooped up, because both big money and mining executives are buying now, while much of the retail investor class is shunning gold and miners. Another big new event is central banks have done the biggest gold buying last quarter that we have seen in 55 years, so they also think gold is a good place to be going forward. Lastly, somebody stepped in to clean up this 300 tonnes of gold, we always hear about all the sellers, but how about the guy that can write a check for 300 tonnes of gold? I assume he is sharper than the average Robinhood trader.

Yesterday was brutal for the group, as the biggest names NEM and GOLD (Barrack Gold) got hammered to new 52 weeks lows. But just like that they have made all that back and more today, adn I’ve included a daily chart of Newmont Mining (NEM), and a weekly chart of Barrack Gold (GOLD) with some horizontal trend lines that show here is another good area to make a stand, and maybe reverse the trend back to higher. While I am aware that the FOMC will continue to raise rates, at least that is what they say they will do, I would not wait until they stop raising or reverse course and start cutting rates before getting invested. Across the board today, most of our miners are up 10% or more. An investor can’t miss too many of these type days without seriously denting their performance, we need to be in them ahead of time.

On both of these charts, we see oversold technicals that look ready to turn and make a trip higher. Time will tell, its been a tough trade but that is always the case with miners, and any group that moves as much as they do. We want to be around for move up, because bull markets in metals and miners are equally spectacular on the upside.

Besides adding to CDE, HL, FSM, and EXK, I also initiated a position in SLVP, another silver miner etf. I included the chart below, even though it looks a lot like SILJ, the only reason I started the new position is SLVP has some different stocks in the top 10 holdings, like NEM, WPM, and HL is the second largest holding at around 12% of the fund, than the SILJ, which oddly enough shares five miners in its etf with the GDXJ etf as well.

To try and catch readers up with all our recent activity, we have been buying and adding all week, but especially on down days, even picked up our first junior explorer in a long time. It’s a PGM (platinum group metals) play, that also has a nickel/copper project in northern Michigan on the upper peninsula. The explorer was brought to my attention by Bob Moriarty at 321.gold, and I couldn’t resist buying shares yesterday knowing I was getting them for half what Bob paid, and he thinks his higher price is a screaming bargain too! He has clued me into some big winners over the years, so I am not chiding him for paying more than me, instead I treat it as good fortune and luck for me. I will post the chart of Biterroot Resources below, as well.

And here is Bitterroot’s weekly chart, I like that their projects are in the US, should have less jurisdictional risk.

Throughout last week, I was adding to many of the miners I have mentioned here in the most recent posts. I just wanted to mention the new buys, and also point out that we might be at another turning point (to head higher), once again. Friday saw good volume in the group, as well as the SLV and GLD etfs, and the miner etfs GDX, GDXJ, SILJ and SIL managed to work above some important moving averages, an important first step in changing the trend back into bull mode.

I will just post the SILJ chart to illustrate, it is now over its 10 day MA, its 50 day MA, and its 10 WEEK MA, not bad for a day’s work on Friday. Also, while I don’t make trading decisions based on the weekly COT reports, I do like when they line up in support of an anticipated trend change, which appears to be the case again this week as the professionals covered more shorts and added to long side positions, while retail and money managers again did the opposite, shorting metals while taking off some long positions. This action on both sides is typically a sign that prices of the metal are about to turn up. If we can get a new intermediate cycle started, we could have 6 months or so of general upside. It could consist of a screaming bull run, or just a modest move higher, but the trend should be up if we can work the miners just a little higher than where they closed trading for the week. For example, GDX closed at $24.34, but only needs to close above $24.59 next week to signal a new Intermediate cycle has begun.

And here is the WEEKLY chart of GDX, to show how close it is to starting a new intermediate cycle.

Lots happening in the markets lately, just a quick note that I added to EQX today, daily chart is below.

While not deeply oversold on the daily chart, EQX is very oversold on the monthly chart technicals still, so I am comfortable adding into this multi-day pullback. Monday we saw silver make its second largest one-day gain ever, so the tide could be turning for metals and their miners as surprises are now coming on the upside again.

Not sure why the gold and silver miners just took off higher in the last few minutes, but could it be news like this?

https://www.reuters.com/article/volkswagen-batteries-canada/vw-aims-to-take-stakes-in-canadian-mines-mine-operators-handelsblatt-idINS8N2XV08S

Keep in mind that silver typically produced as a by product of gold or base metals mining, so the SILJ etf could benefit greatly if more companies follow suit and start buying stakes in Canadian mining companies. Just a small run to the 200 day MA is a 28% gain from the current price, as I type.

Along with $Silver, we have new ICs confirmed in $Gold, SILJ, GDXJ, and SIL, we are only waiting for GDX to confirm it’s new cycle. These new ICs suggest general upside for 4-6 months, so it’s time to be fully invested in miners and precious metals. Below is the weekly chart for $Silver, but the charts of all the others mentioned above look about the same, notice the MACD is just about to turn positive as well, after being negative the last 3+ months.

It’s still too early to tell, but it’s quite possible the miners have started a new uptrend, after having broken the severe downtrend they we experiencing. I’m posting the daily charts for GDXJ and SILJ below, but keep in mind these etfs still have not reached oversold technicals on the daily charts, that could take another few days of sideways to lower prices. However, if the miners don’t give up much of the recent gains, its a sign there are buyers of miners under the market, and not many sellers. This would indicate another strong move higher, once the mines turn up again. We added to FSM (Fortuna Silver) and the SILJ etf over the last few days, and will continue to add to those and stocks like CDE, HL, and PAAS when opportunities arise (into price pullbacks), maybe even this morning.

As today is the first day of the new monthly, its time again to review the long term charts as they have new data points this morning. Below I posted the SILJ monthly chart, but I could have posted any of the precious metals miners or metals etfs, since they all look very similar. That’s a good sign, it means sentiment across the group is synched up and near unanimous, as they all show oversold technicals such as stochastics and MACD now contracting as it begins its move back to the zero line. GLD and SLV also look the same, all that remains is to see how far and fast miners and metals can move as they have just started new daily cycles, and are looking to confirm new IC’s (intermediate cycles) next, which would extend the potential upside to 4 months or more. We are still looking to add into intraday weakness, and especially if we can get a few days in a row of lower prices, as the daily stochastics are now overbought. This suggests we might see a few days of lower prices, not guaranteed by any means, but if occurs we will add to our mid-sized silver miners, including HL, FSM, CDE, maybe PAAS, AG, and EXK as well.

Now that the FOMC announcement is behind us, and the miners acted well in the face on another .75% rate increase, we decided to add to our SILJ holdings this morning on the early dip in the first hour. We didn’t place any trades yesterday, instead just wanted to observe the market’s response to the Fed decision. Several important things occurred this week, including the breaking of many downtrend lines in the group, on their daily charts. Cycles followers also will note we now have confirmed Daily Cycle Lows in place, another good sign the turn higher has begun. Lastly, we are now seeing the stochastics on the weekly charts emerge out of oversold, same with the RSI (5), again suggesting the bounce has begun. Now we have to wait and see how far the move higher can go, and if it can “stick”, that is to say, keep it’s gains. For now, with a new daily cycle confirmed, we should expect 6-10 weeks of generally higher prices in the miners, but if we can get a new Intermediate Cycle confirmed in the group, then we could look for 4-6 months of higher prices. The cycles only suggest the probable direction, how far and fast they move is something we can never know ahead of time. We will continue to look to add into pullbacks, but are likely done buying for this week, as we are loaded up and have already had a decent bounce over the last couple of days. Below is a chart of SILJ showing the broken downtrend line, but just about every mining stock shows a similar pattern.

Equinox Gold is down roughly 60% in jus the last three months. We added to our position today, ahead of the FOMC announcement this afternoon. Typically, we would wait until after the news is out of the way, but so many miner charts look like the one below, we have to think a low is near, if it isn’t already behind us.