After several days of big gains back to back in our accounts, in the 6-8% range, I thought I would mention a few things. Many of our miners are taking out their 52 week highs again, supported but moving averages that are trending solidly higher. The GDX etf made a new high today with components like NEM, AEM, and WPM doing the same, while many of our individual holdings such as PAAS, CDE, GATO, JAGGF, EXK, SILV, NGD, and even our SILJ etf got within a penny of a new high for the year, as I type. This is a bull market action, if I were not already heavily long, I would get buying now.

I will point out a few other things that might be showing us the way forward, for example, today is the first day in long time the tech stocks are won more than 2%. The fact miners are not getting dragged down with the general market is a big flashing BUY signal, I would not wait for a marker correction hoping miners drop with the market so I could buy them cheaper. It won’t likely happen, as we are already up 138% in CDE, 116% in GATO, with many more positions up 80-100% so far, and most investors still don’t acknowledge miners are in a bull market. This means there is a lot more to come, as they get converted to believers and start to chase the higher prices. I recently bought Silver futures (Sept contract), in the $29 range to add some more metal to our portfolios, and took advantage of the correction over the last month to add to most miner positions. So if the general stock market starts to weaken this summer, and we see more days like today, I would expect to see a lot more money flow into the precious metals and mining stocks. Take a look at the ratio chart of SILJ:QQQ, with a solid jump above all the moving averages, and note the 10 day moving average turning sharply higher as well. I expect this ratio to get over the horizontal line I have drawn above, very soon. What’s more, the junior explorers still have not kicked into serious bull mode yet, typical action in a new bull market is for the bigger, safer miners to make highs first like GDX has done, then new money flows into the mid-cap producers, later on the smaller, more risky juniors. This tells me there is still time for people to jump in now, I would focus on mid-caps at the moment, but I would not wait any longer. We have just passed the historically worst ime of the year for miners, they typically get strong after July 4th and run higher into September. Combined with the fact we are now beginning to see weakness in the general stock market, bitcoin and other competing investments, implies we could get a real rocket ride over the next few months. Remember that the biggest gains come in very short time periods. To illustrate, I will also post a chart of JAGGF (Jaguar Mining in Brazil).

Sharp rallies occur that make it hard to buy into a stock, NGD is another example.

There is also the problem of what to do if one of the miners you want to by didn’t even pull back much in the one-month correction we rode through, like CDE. It won’t partake in the downside, but more than happy to join the party when the group is rising. What a beautiful chart, and with a 138% gain already in the position, it will now be easier to hold for the duration of the bull. This stock often gains 400-800% in bull markets for miners, so while these names are extended in the short term, I will not sell anything as they won’t make it easy for me to buy back in.

I realize a trend line with only three touches of the line is not always a reliable line, but I drew it to illustrate how steep the ascent has been, out of the March low. The takeaway is the miners rally sharper than just about any group, and one doesn’t want to miss bull markets in them because they can be life-changing events. The fact is we keep getting additional confirmation that a bull has recently started, and the things we want to see fall into place, like a weakening stock market and economy are now showing themselves as well.

Historically, on average June 13 (today) is the low for the year in the precious metals miners. Since the miners were much lower in March than where they sit now, today can’t be the low, its either behind us or still in front of us. Either way, the plan remains the same. I’ve posted a couple charts below of stocks I am adding to positions, I really like BTG’s 6% dividend. I also started a fresh position in July Wheat futures (ZW), as you can see it has pulled back to some important moving averages and is oversold on stochastics, after a recent Donchian breakout in late May. I paid 620.00 per contract, and like that I can maintain a tight stop just below the 30 WK MA, limiting our risk.

First is the SLV:GLD ratio, rebounding hard out of the support zone. As this chart trends higher, it reaffirms the bull market is underway. Oversold stochastics suggests this ratio has several more days upside, at least.

Next, we have the GDX daily chart, where I have measured the distance from the 200 day moving average thus far in this bull market. There is no way I will sell anything unless the GDX is at least 50-60% above it’s 200 day MA, as this typically is when the miners take a more significant break in their upside move. Until then, dips are to be bought, I don’t try to avoid them by selling and trying to buy back in at cheaper prices, because that is how one gets left behind.

Now for the SLV daily chart. We see the oversold stochastics again, accompanying this sharp rally, pushing SLV back over its 10 day MA. It’s a sign that this pull back might have already ended. If it has, great because we added to many positions over the last few days, and it it isn’t the near term end of the correction, we will get a chance to add some more. However, bounces out of declines with this much force should not be ignored. Just like that, silver is only about $1.50 from new bull market highs, after taking out long held resistance. Note that it also bounced out of the new support area, which is the old resistance area.

The last few days have seen the metals and their miners pulling back to their 10 week MA’s. For example, SILJ and Silver futures have both retreated around 10%, while some miners have had sharper corrections.

Now that the correction is here, the only question is how will you play it? Some weaker bulls, many of them late buyers into the runup, will be inclined to sell as they didn’t see enough gains to be able to hold steadfast into a decline. For those that bought in at much lower prices like we did, I am taking advantage and doing some moderate buying today, adding to various miners and the SILJ etf at their 10 week MA’s, which seem to get respected in a verified bull market. For no other reason than I just had this chart up, I decided to post SVM (Silvercorp), which I am adding to now, as the charts shows it’s already corrected around 18%. Can it go lower tomorrow? Yes it can, but more often than not, buying a stock that is in a bull market and has dropped 18% back to its 10 week and 50 day moving average, is a high probability bet.

Regarding other commodity groups I am watching with interest, such as copper and base metal stocks, they have also experienced decent-sized corrections. It will be interesting to see if they can hold, then turn higher from these levels, or if the weakening economy drags them lower. Energy is another group I am curious to see how it holds up, as its been relatively weak in the commodity arena. Are these rolling over, the XOP and COPX, or are they presenting an opportunity to get on the bull train again? We will know soon enough, but for now my focus continues to be on precious metals and their miners, as they can go up, in fact should benefit, from a weakening economy and stock market.

Two ratio charts showing developing trends, the $Silver:$Gold illustrates silver in breaking out vs gold, typically a sign of a precious metals bull market. The second chart is SILJ:SLV, interesting because yesterday silver was down 3.5% all day, while silver miners were in the green all day, finishing up on the day. Normally, one would expect to see silver miners down double the metal, or more, so a 7% down day would not have surprised me, but seeing the strength in miners sufficient to end the day higher, surprised me greatly! The bull is here, buy all dips!

Not only have we seen a recent breakout in silver vs. gold, not the trends in the moving averages in both charts. They have finished going lower and actually are just turning higher, so I expect to see silver and miners to lead gold, while gold also continues its march higher.

Barely anybody is acknowledging that miners and metals are in a bull market, outside of gold itself. Take a look at WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals), make new ALL-TIME highs, but not getting any recognition as yet. This tells me there is lots more upside in this bull, and forgive me for stepping away and letting it do it’s thing, leading me to post less here. I prefer to let winners run and we have been having a string of enormous gains, easy to make one excitable, so I look away and do something else. After all, no way I am selling anything down here, so no point it watching every tick.

While I do not own WPM outright, I am happy to say its in the top ten holdings of the SILJ etf, which I think is how most non-professional investors should play the miners. People think etfs don’t move, but just in 2016 SILJ gained 389% over six months! I have added here at there to positions in BTG and EQX, and am prepared to buy a sharp drop that lasts just a day or two, when it finally arrives. It might not happen until miners are at much higher levels, when they are in a bull market, they are a sight to behold!

SILJ made new 2 year highs today, while SLV is set to make it’s highest daily close in the last 4 years, if it closes where it is, as I type. So much for those that refuse to admit precious metals and their miners are in a new bull market! The small investor still hasn’t even noticed, which means we have much higher to go. Stay long and strong, take advantage of sharp pullbacks that might only last a day or two, to add to positions. We well get the typical 25% correction at some point, but like Michael Oliver, I don’t think that it’s in the near future. Be prepared to hold through it, or for those that are great traders, they might try to side-step the decline when it becomes obvious it’s close at hand. But for now, nothing to do except sit tight and let winners run.

Coffee futures have had a big run since last October 2023, and a subsequent 20%+ correction into an area where I am inclined to buy. Anywhere below the $2.00 level offers a good risk/reward entry, in my opinion. We have seen many commodities take turns spiking higher, Cocoa was the most shocking rise and correction, but others like Orange Juice are breaking out to new multi-year highs, and now things like Wheat, Corn, Rough Rice, and even Silver look ready to start their moves up. Wheat has already done so, the only reason I didn’t buy for our accounts is that it’s not technically in an uptrend on the daily charts yet, but it is close to doing so, meaning I will then buy into multi-day dips or longer sideways consolidations. Copper continues its relentless rise, and platinum just recently started to put up a string of big daily gains, while not involved with these, I might buy the SI futures (July Silver contract), since it looks wound up and ready to explode higher. My favorite technical analyst, Michael Oliver, thinks silver is just in front of a huge 6-10 month rally that could take it to $50 this year. He has been out doing many interviews lately, for those that want to search youtube and hear his words from his own mouth, but suffice to say that he has been deadly accurate in his calls the last several years.

Here is the daily Coffee chart. I added the trend line, though that is not the reason I am buying here, since commodities often trade differently than stocks, they don’t always respect trend lines and more often have a tendency for sharp momentum moves, so breakouts are more important in commodities than in stocks. I just like that Coffee had the big breakout, then got smacked down for a decent correction that has already lasted 4-5 weeks, but could go as long as 6-10 weeks. There is no rush to buy, and the late buyers have been sufficiently punished, so that the downside could be limited from here. If it continues to hold in here around its 10 week MA (not posted here, but around $2.04), I will get long in the accounts I manage, and be ready to quickly add if it starts to move up again.

In the last post, I forgot to show the broken downtrend line, which could be showing us the correction in silver is already over. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t, but either way this retreat is an opportunity to buy or add to positions in the metals and miners.

Just a couple charts to consider, first is the SLV silver etf to show how much silver rallied from the February low to the April high, in just two months it rallied 36%. Many people say silver and miners are lagging, but the charts say otherwise. By the way, in my opinion nobody should ever buy the SLV etf, as they don’t have to own physical silver. Lots has been written about this topic and its manager JP Morgan, for those that want to know more about why they should avoid the SLV etf. That said, silver (the metal) and it’s miners look like they are ready to make another move higher. I added to our SILJ leap options with a January 2026 expiry last Friday, and am looking to add to other individual miners as well.

With that in mind, let’s look at EQX (Equinox Gold) on a weekly chart. The stock has now pulled back nicely after making a new 52 week high, is in an uptrend, and now sits on its 10 week moving average while stochastics are now closer to oversold than overbought. I don’t recall which firm it was, but a recognizable brokerage firm came out with a target near $30 (CAD), about $22 in USD! I’m not sure if it was a misprint or not, nor would I buy on a broker’s recommendation, but with the stock at $5.60 as I type, that would be some amazing upside potential. I will stick to my analysis and just say its a stock I am adding to either today or tomorrow, among several others including FSM, SVM, BTG, PAAS, HL, CDE, AG, AYASF, SILV, and possibly a couple juniors like AAGFF and LGDTF. I was prepared for another week of sideways to lower prices as the group corrects, but the open today (Monday morning) saw the group make big gains, so it appears the correction might already be over. I plan to add 10% across the board to each position.