In time, we will look back at today and realize how important it was. As I write this just after 12 pm, the SILJ etf already has close to four million shares traded, more than double the volume of a typical trading day. Gold made all-time highs again today, and most of out miners are up 7-10%, while getting back over all their moving averages on the daily charts. On top of it all, the stock market can barely stay in the green today, and the digital junk like bitcoin can only rise 1%. Once these two things start to drop, it will be icing on the cake, as miners are the strongest group by far today, and its still the seasonal strong time for precious metals, albeit the miners got a late start this year. Below is the GDX, screaming to anybody left that will listen, “I’m going higher!”. Add in the fact miners will start reporting all-time record earnings and cash flow in 2-3 weeks, and there is no telling how high they could fly.

Eye-opening chart as to how well gold has performed, in this case vs. the world’s largest safe-haven market, US Treasury bonds. It’s shocking to me that miners of precious metals are scraping all time lows as far as valuations versus the metals, while gold is performing as well as it is. It also might be time to consider owning some bonds, though I will stick to the metals and their miners, since bonds were in a 40 year bull market and the trend is not in their favor. Still, bonds can benefit from a weak stock market, which many believe is inevitable. Stocks are due for a large correction, but if the Fed keeps printing to keep assets afloat (inflationary), bonds should not rise as much as precious metals.

It’s far too early to say the basic materials stocks like VALE, and BHP are turning around, yet they all had very high volume on the turn higher yesterday, and I have been waiting patiently for them to put a bottom in. Situations like this can take time, so patience is necessary, but since we are in a commodity bull market and the USD appears to have at least found a temporary top, I am inclined to start a position in Vale soon. When they have growing earnings they pay out some hefty dividends. I typically wait for an uptrend to be established, as defined by the daily moving averages all heading higher with the 50 day above the 200 day MA, but that will take some time to materialize in Vale, as its trading so far below the MAs. These cases can work well, and the position can get profitable right out of the gate, though a rip-roaring bull will not come soon. First the stock has to bottom, like we might be seeing now, then it gets a decent rally into the moving averages or some trendlines where it will take time to get through them, and trade solidly above. Only then do momentum and trend traders come into the stock, and we get a smoother and more significant ride higher. However, if Vale can pay some dividends to me while I wait, and I can be up 15-20% on the position quickly, I don’t mind buying earlier than I normally would. I haven’t decided to buy yet, and since its Friday before a long holiday, I will not buy until next week if I decide to get involved. Here are the monthly and weekly charts, the monthly goes back twenty years, and both show stochastics in oversold territory.

I tend to agree with Patrick Karim that horizontal trend lines are most important. The weekly chart of SILJ is mine, but I suggest you follow the link to Mr. Karim’s fine work as well, it looks like the $31 level on the silver yearly chart going back to 1970 is a very important area. Above $31 is a massive breakout, no matter when the metal closes there. Could it happen by December 31st? Sure, its already there and just needs to hold, or go higher. Recall that we are in the strongest season of the year for gold and silver.

Don’t forget to visit Patrick Karim on X.

We started a position in natural gas (March contract) late last week at $3.015, and will look to add to the position. Basically, after natgas has a huge +20% day recently, it broke the downtrend, and while I don’t expect it will head immediately higher with the velocity we have seen, it appears that this commodity might have transitioned to a bull market again. Stops are down around $2.80, give or take a few pennies.

I’m also keeping my eye on agriculture stocks like NTR, and the futures in both Corn and Wheat. I have not gotten involved as yet, but its possible these commodities are about to transition back to bull status as well, after a correction lasting nearly two years.