I have found Mr. Karim to be correct more often than not, and more so on his very long term observations, which I define as 2+ years. I have linked to his recent twitter post regarding the implications for much higher silver prices after the recent breakout, pay particular attention to his “volume defined base”, and the fact this indicator suggests its potentially clear skies ahead, up to the $40 level conservatively, or the $62 level on the metal if things get bonkers. Bookmark his site, they do some fine charting and get the long term trends correct.

The chart below shows weekly data for the last 10 years. After a signifcant run out of the 2020 lows, cotton futures manages to triple over the next two years. Then we get the classic correction, followed by a correction lasting roughly a year and a half. Corrections can last longer, sometimes even three years, but the recent breakout early this year suggests the correction might be over. In that case we wait for a pullback to the breakout are of 90, then start acquiring a position. I am looking to add cotton futures for myself and client accounts in this area where it currently sits in the 88 region. As always, position sizing is the most important aspect of trading, and cotton has a weekly ATR (average true range) about $4.60, so size accordingly, knowing each contract trades in roughly a $2,300 range each week.

Today was the best day of the rally so far, with accounts jumping 7.5%-10%, after an already stellar month of March. Notice the huge volume flowing into the SLV etf, which I only for charting purposes, I do NOT recommend anybody invest in this particular etf for silver exposure. Much better to buy physical metal, miners, and the PSLV etf (Sprott physical silver fund). While the metals and miners are getting heated in the short term, there is a LOT left in this bull. It will be something to behold, and most have not yet gotten involved. At this stage of the bull, all dips should be bought, as they typically don’t last long.