Here is a monthly chart of the $CRB commodity index vs. the $SPX S&P500 index, going back twenty years. Two things to note, first is that the big run higher with inflation from 2021 is hardly a blip on the chart. The second thing that jumps out at me is how much potential upside commodities have, after what appear to be just the first leg of a new commodity bull. Once the ratio gets over the downtrend line, commodities could rocket higher. The ratios stayed in a range from 2003 (as far as this chart can go back) until it broker lower in 2012, at a level OVER 3x higher than where it sits today! Just getting back to that area would be a bull market to behold in commodities and the stocks of companies that produce them. I maintain that we haven’t seen anything yet, and nothing like what we will see over the next several years.

The uptrend line on the weekly chart of SILJ was tested, let’s see how big of a bounce it gets, now that we have passed the seasonally worst time on average for miners in June. The winds should be at our backs until the third week of September, if history is any indication. Also, the miners have confirmed new daily cycles, and have already made swing lows on the weekly charts, now we wait for them to get over their 10 week MA to confirm a new intermediate cycle as well.