Tuesday November 9, 2021 Update

I haven’t posted in over a week, and while nothing earth-shattering has occurred to report on, several things are worth noting. For example, today Pretium Resources (PVG) was bought out by Newcrest from Australia, and while the purchase price is only about a 23% premium from Monday’s close, the stock of PVG is still up over 56% in the last six weeks. It’s good to see takeovers ramping up in the mining sector, yet I still hope my holdings don’t sell out after 56% rallies, I think we can make a whole lot more if we push for more.

Lets go to some general market and mining sector observations. As the stock market continues to go straight up overall, I am starting to see some weakness in various groups that is not being met with big buying. Instead, some stocks are choosing to continue lower, or are only able to rally marginally. However, the miners are holding it well, and they seem to get bought back up after weak openings, or just plod higher several days in a row. Here we see GDXJ (the junior gold miners etf) making a new high for this bounce as I type…

And GDX pulled back to it’s 50% fibonacci retracement level, then tried to break below the 50 day moving average, only to reverse and get back to it’s rally…

So things look like they are shaping up in the precious metals sector, as gold itself is now back above it’s 200 MA, leading the sector higher…

Not to be confused with a one-trick pony, I am always looking for signals in any and all groups to get involved. On that note, some base metal commodities like iron-ore have pulled back substantially. While I am concerned that more economically sensitive commodities might take a break for a year or so after huge rallies they had recently, some are pulling back to levels where I am getting interested at these prices, if not so much in this timing band. I think most of the downside should be behind such stocks at Vale (Brazilian iron-ore, copper, nickel, etc miner), I also don’t expect much more than sharp bounces that sell off again, here and there until enough time passes that they can start another sustainable uptrend. However, with prices so beaten down on stocks like Vale, I have taken a small position to force me to be involved and look for the big turn higher, whenever it resumes. Here are the daily, weekly, and monthly charts, oversold on all time frames, if I was a short term trader, I would buy this one just for a bounce…

All in all, things are shaping up nicely for our accounts. I have yet to start acquiring the marijuana stocks, though they are also very oversold on longer term charts, and have not yet added to my China internet giants etf, though a good smackdown in the US markets would have me drooling to buy more, since the Chinese internet stocks like BABA, BIDU, and TCEHY have already pulled back hard. I suspect they haven’t mounted a sustainable rally yet, because they could be anticipating a decline in the US markets, which would likely keep a lid on much upside in the KWEB etf in the near term.