While I realize trend lines are subjective, as the person drawing them determines the contact points. In other words, does one just use the absolute high or low of the wick, and do they allow for a trend line to have been penetrated, as long as it came back into range and continued to stay in the range? For this reason charting and trend lines can’t be exact, however they can be used to get the general areas and trend directions correct, so are of great use overall. Regardless of how you draw the lines on the chart of SLV, it’s clearly in an uptrend since the 2020 lows, and it’s making a solid attempt to move higher with that solid white bar for this month (March) which is more impressive being the month is only half over. Then the PPO has just put in a positive bar, and like the GDX chart I posted yesterday, this move up is contrary to the down sloping stochastics, always a sign of overwhelming strength as it’s shaking off the tendency to go in the direction it “should” be going. Something bigger is happening, even it it’s not yet apparent in the news, and both SLV and GDX want to go higher over the next couple months at least. I added to some of my miners, keeping in mind they usually bite me before they work out, so didn’t buy heavily. Still, I added to BTG with it’s 6.2% dividend, some HL, SVM, and even started positions in a few developers and explorers like WRLGF, AAGFF, and AGXPF. My plan remains the same, and I will not be going overboard on the juniors at this stage in the new bull, but later on I might shift profits on my mid-caps into the more risky juniors. I also plan to add to EQX, ORLA, JAGGF, maybe also AG and HL again, if a pullback materializes.

The fact GDX is thus far putting in a solid monthly bar higher, and over all the moving averages, while in the face of down trending stochastics, is a very positive sign. I think the bottom is in on the precious metals miners, and those that don’t own them yet will not get many opportunities to buy them comfortably. If GDX gets over the $32 area, it could easily test the all time highs near $60, even blow through that level.

While people were dancing on the graves of miners, including many long time metals bulls just recently, many miners have raced higher with new all time highs in gold, and silver closing in on the $25 level again. Some quick charts…

Miners look great to me, and while they are extended in the very near term and could correct lower at any time, it should be used as a buying opportunity. Keep in mind most silver miners are actually 50-75% gold producers, or derive much of their revenues from other metals like copper or zinc, so higher gold prices will go right to the bottom line. Even better, many trading days lately it is miners that are the strongest group, while most others are down on the day. This run has only begun, but expect sharp, scary pullbacks along the way, as the bull ties to shake you off!

I will use the GLD etf for my charts, since they are up to the minute including today’s move higher. Below are the daily and weekly charts for GLD, and not only is gold above all the moving averages I use, its the same on my monthly charts as well. So we have a definite trend higher, and the only thing that could hold it back from making new all time highs might be the horizontal resistance in this general area, going back to 2011. It has tried several times to get through these highs, in fact did so recently before pulling back to test the break out. The ceiling has slowly turned into a new floor, providing a launch pad from which to mount the next significant run higher. How high? I’ve learned nobody can know for sure, but spot gold could easily go to $2500 in this move, which would be in the area around $250 on GLD.

Everybody hates miners, refusing to touch them ever again. They post charts showing how poorly they perform over time as investments, and I can’t argue with that. I also know the group can fly faster and farther than most can imagine, often in very short time periods. These can be life-changing moves for those that realize it’s far better to be a buyer with the mood so grim, than any other time. It won’t surprise me to see such fierce negativity remain, after the double from here, providing the fuel for a 300-400% returns in just the “slower” moving big miners, and 600-1000% gains in many junior explorers. Maybe I will be proven wrong, but its always darkest before dawn, and I have seen what miners can do in the past when everybody despises them.

I have been waiting patiently for cotton to rise and hold above the 90 area, which has now occurred. While it has overbought technicals on the daily and weekly charts already, we will be looking to buy cotton futures into a decline to around 90, with technical indicators well out of overbought, but preferably into oversold zones.

Aside from looking to enter cotton and the MJ etf, we also made some small additions to our mining positions, while they are still weak.

The down trend line goes back to late 2021, let’s see if GoGold can breakout above it, that is the first step in starting a new trend direction.

Oversold stochastics and near horizontal trend line support. Will it hold?

We started buying BTG today. Let’s see if this is a false breakdown below the horizontal trend line I’ve drawn on the weekly chart. A $3.2 billion market cap with a 5.78% dividend today, with a PE just under 11% are just a few things to like about this miner.