The PSLV etf buys and holds physical silver for its shareholders, so buyers can own physical metal in their brokerage accounts, and as far as I know, its legitimate. They list the bars bought and sold each day for shareholders by serial number, and post the data on their website each day. On the other hand, many silver etfs, like the largest one defined by assets under management, is the SLV etf. Its volume os shares traded each day used to dwarf the PSLV, but more people all the time are coming to understand that funds like SLV don’t have to own the metal, they just try and track the price (until the don’t). Their prospectus is clear about this, so SLV defeats the purpose of buying silver in the first place. On top of that, since etfs like SLV are only supposed to track silver’s price, there is no guarantee that they will, and they make that clear as well. Seems to me, if one is a bull on silver, they would want their vote counted by taking some physical off the market and into their possession, or Sprott’s possession to hold and protect for them. This helps the price higher, because supply is reduced, but with SLV type etfs, if they don’t buy the silver, you don’t get to put your pressure on prices to go higher.

I mention this to help those that might not have read the SLV prospectus, please do so, you must realize that you don’t necessarily (probably don’t) own the metal you thought you bought. It looks like more people are understanding this lately, or maybe we are nearing a shock event. I’ve posted the charts of PSLV and SLV below, notice how SLV’s is relatively constant, while PSLV’s volume is exploding higher, in fact setting records many days over the last month. Spikes in PSLV volume only seem to occur near big market shocks, you will notice this if you find a chart that goes back far enough. Usually these moments are accompanied by big moves higher in price, such as the silver squeeze in 2021, and we also see the discount to NAV shrink at the same time, which is happening now. In fact, when we have lots of fear in the markets, PSLV will trade at a premium to it’s NAV, often with a sharp spike higher. These observations tell me something big is about to occur, others know about it, and are getting into position to own physical silver. Record volume more than doubling what has occurred in past events, and lasting a month or longer, are particularly noteworthy.

While gold continues to make new all-time highs every couple days, and we wait for the secondary groups to follow it to new highs, those being silver and the miners, I am posting a chart that also has me interested. This is a weekly chart of the URA etf, and while I won’t likely buy the etf itself (I make my own), I am interested in uranium stocks longer term. The monthly chart also exhibits a nice uptrend. I am not buying into the group just yet, since the sideways trading range is only just over one year in duration. With a weaker stock market and economy potentially dragging energy lower in general, or at least keeping a lid on prices, I don’t feel I need to be early on my purchases. If I do start a position, it will likely be in a physical etf like Sprott’s SRUUF and/or Yellow Cake (YLLXF), as they both trade at a discount to NAV, and have had recent breakdowns below horizontal support lines, that if end up holding, would be classic examples of “false breakdowns” and reversals.

In time, we will look back at today and realize how important it was. As I write this just after 12 pm, the SILJ etf already has close to four million shares traded, more than double the volume of a typical trading day. Gold made all-time highs again today, and most of out miners are up 7-10%, while getting back over all their moving averages on the daily charts. On top of it all, the stock market can barely stay in the green today, and the digital junk like bitcoin can only rise 1%. Once these two things start to drop, it will be icing on the cake, as miners are the strongest group by far today, and its still the seasonal strong time for precious metals, albeit the miners got a late start this year. Below is the GDX, screaming to anybody left that will listen, “I’m going higher!”. Add in the fact miners will start reporting all-time record earnings and cash flow in 2-3 weeks, and there is no telling how high they could fly.

Eye-opening chart as to how well gold has performed, in this case vs. the world’s largest safe-haven market, US Treasury bonds. It’s shocking to me that miners of precious metals are scraping all time lows as far as valuations versus the metals, while gold is performing as well as it is. It also might be time to consider owning some bonds, though I will stick to the metals and their miners, since bonds were in a 40 year bull market and the trend is not in their favor. Still, bonds can benefit from a weak stock market, which many believe is inevitable. Stocks are due for a large correction, but if the Fed keeps printing to keep assets afloat (inflationary), bonds should not rise as much as precious metals.

It’s far too early to say the basic materials stocks like VALE, and BHP are turning around, yet they all had very high volume on the turn higher yesterday, and I have been waiting patiently for them to put a bottom in. Situations like this can take time, so patience is necessary, but since we are in a commodity bull market and the USD appears to have at least found a temporary top, I am inclined to start a position in Vale soon. When they have growing earnings they pay out some hefty dividends. I typically wait for an uptrend to be established, as defined by the daily moving averages all heading higher with the 50 day above the 200 day MA, but that will take some time to materialize in Vale, as its trading so far below the MAs. These cases can work well, and the position can get profitable right out of the gate, though a rip-roaring bull will not come soon. First the stock has to bottom, like we might be seeing now, then it gets a decent rally into the moving averages or some trendlines where it will take time to get through them, and trade solidly above. Only then do momentum and trend traders come into the stock, and we get a smoother and more significant ride higher. However, if Vale can pay some dividends to me while I wait, and I can be up 15-20% on the position quickly, I don’t mind buying earlier than I normally would. I haven’t decided to buy yet, and since its Friday before a long holiday, I will not buy until next week if I decide to get involved. Here are the monthly and weekly charts, the monthly goes back twenty years, and both show stochastics in oversold territory.

I tend to agree with Patrick Karim that horizontal trend lines are most important. The weekly chart of SILJ is mine, but I suggest you follow the link to Mr. Karim’s fine work as well, it looks like the $31 level on the silver yearly chart going back to 1970 is a very important area. Above $31 is a massive breakout, no matter when the metal closes there. Could it happen by December 31st? Sure, its already there and just needs to hold, or go higher. Recall that we are in the strongest season of the year for gold and silver.

Don’t forget to visit Patrick Karim on X.

We started a position in natural gas (March contract) late last week at $3.015, and will look to add to the position. Basically, after natgas has a huge +20% day recently, it broke the downtrend, and while I don’t expect it will head immediately higher with the velocity we have seen, it appears that this commodity might have transitioned to a bull market again. Stops are down around $2.80, give or take a few pennies.

I’m also keeping my eye on agriculture stocks like NTR, and the futures in both Corn and Wheat. I have not gotten involved as yet, but its possible these commodities are about to transition back to bull status as well, after a correction lasting nearly two years.

Let’s step back to the weekly (intermediate) time frame, and look at EXK. As the fifth largest holding in SILJ, this looks attractive to me since it has well-oversold stochastics, along with having completed a 50% fibonacci retracement. This is as good a time as any to get long, for those looking to add or start a position, or one could buy SILJ, since many charts in the etf look similar.

Tax-loss selling in the junior miners has been brutal this year. Take a look at ASM (Avino Silver and Gold Mines), after breaking into significant new highs in late October, it’s gotten smashed 44% lower in just the last 8 weeks! This is one I bought today, along with CHPGF (Chesapeake Gold), and a few others. I will take them off the hands of those that can’t take anymore!

I will use the weekly chart of the SLV etf for a proxy on silver, with a quick horizontal trend line added, to show why I am adding to our Silver futures (March contract) position today if we get over the $30.09 level. That level if taken out on the upside, would suggest the move lower this week was a false breakdown. Thus far, Silver has managed to get up to $30.03, so we are getting very close. I will add 20% to the current position size.